New Cambria, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

665
FXUS63 KEAX 271119
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
619 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* No hazardous weather is expected over the next 7 days.
  - Above normal fall temps, mainly into the mid 80s
  - Dry conditions
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Broadly speaking, no substantial changes in the going forecast the
next week plus. If anything, temperatures are trending a degree or
two warmer through the weekend and into next week, with highs
outperforming in many cases yesterday. And not terribly surprising
given the very dry airmass in place and ongoing. Otherwise, looking
around the area early this morning, WV imagery reinforces the
substantially dry airmass in place, though having shifted eastward
some in response to a northern stream mid-upper trough moving across
the Canadian Plains. Nighttime microphysics imagery too less robust
early this morning with regards to river valley fog as the influence
of rains a couple days ago lessen.
For the remainder of today, sensible weather largely a copy of
yesterday, but a couple of subtle differences. Skies won`t quite be
crystal clear, there will be a smattering of high-level clouds as
the aforementioned northern stream trough exerts some lift and
squeezes out said bit of cloud cover. A surface cool front will
approach the area as well, originating from parent surface low in
central Manitoba. Given the sheer distance, and even with some
support from a trailing surface high moving into the
central/northern Plains, the boundary is expected to struggle to
make it much more than around Highway 36/I-70 corridors. Trailing
behind the front will be an even drier and nominally cooler air
mass, but should largely remain in Nebraska/Iowa. All this to say
high temperatures again into the mid 80s in most cases. A few
southern/western areas may flirt with the upper 80s and NW Missouri
may only get into the low 80s, dependent on said cool frontal
passage timing. Winds, regardless of frontal passage, remain
on the lighter side/under 10mph.
Upper level pattern evolution remains on track/unchanged the next
handful of days. Existing weak blocking pattern will yield a gradual
eastward shift of the mid-upper ridge across central CONUS through
the weekend and into early next week. While eastern trough degrades
early next week, additional blocking results as existing Potential
Tropical Cyclone Nine is forecast to move up through the Bahamas and
near the GA/SC/NC coasts early-mid next week. This causes
continuance of upper level ridging influence across portions of the
Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley. Current synoptic deterministic and
ensemble guidance suggest this continues throughout the work week,
keeping conditions persistently dry and seasonally warm in the 80s.
Some pattern shift is signaled late in the 7-day forecast as a
large upper trough moving into the PNW within deterministic and
ensemble guidance. As this feature works inland, solutions begin to
diverge more substantially and tend to deflect it northward. Suffice
it to say though, the next opportunity for any notable
temperature/air mass change (cooler) or precipitation chances will
be associated with it potentially late next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Aside from KSTJ, VFR conditions expected to prevail throughout
the period. KSTJ should quickly return to VFR this morning as
shallow fog burns off, but may once again see some reductions
tonight. Light SSW/SW winds will settle, but remain under 10kts
across the sites. By the afternoon/evening, a weak frontal
passage will begin to encroach the area, but stall out around
Highway 36/I-70 corridors. This results in a shift toward N/NW
winds at KSTJ, and a more variable mix at the trio of metro
sites KMCI/KMKC/KIXD.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion