Newsom, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

685
FXUS62 KRAH 200711
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
310 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak backdoor cold front will move south through NC later today
and tonight. High pressure will follow and extend across the Middle
Atlantic Sunday and Monday, then drift offshore.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 810 PM Friday...
There is a strong signal in the model guidance that dense fog will
develop again tonight, similar to what happened late last night.
Have gone ahead and issued a Dense Fog Advisory primarily for areas
to the east of Interstate 95. Cannot rule out the possibility that
the advisory will need to be extended farther to the west, but east
of the interstate is where the confidence is highest for the fog to
occur, especially considering what was observed earlier. Lows will
generally be in the low to mid 60s, with some isolated upper 50s in
the usual cool spots.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Friday...
* Mostly dry backdoor cold front should pass through the region
  Saturday night.
Above normal temperatures will continue Saturday ahead of a weak
backdoor cold frontal passage. High temperatures are expected to
reach the mid 80s in the north to the upper 80s in the south. A
backdoor cold front should reach the region from the north Saturday
night. A lack of moisture will diminish rain chances, however a very
isolated shower cannot be ruled out especially in the north Saturday
evening/night. Behind the front, a deck of low stratus looks likely
to develop in the north and east Saturday night. Low temperatures
should dip into the low-to-mid 60s overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 308 AM Friday...
There is good ensemble consensus that an upper low will form over
the central Plains on Tuesday before cutting off and lingering over
the mid-Mississippi to Ohio Valleys Wednesday into Friday. This will
initially focus the deeper moisture and precipitation over the
Mississippi Valley Monday through early Wednesday before shifting
over our area more-so late Wednesday into Saturday.
At the sfc, high pressure will shift away from New England on
Monday. The persistent nely flow we`ve seen the past week will turn
more esely by Monday afternoon. As mentioned above, anomalous
moisture and sfc/upper forcing will remain to our west on Monday and
as such expect a dry day with highs similar to Sunday in the upper
70s to mid 80s.
By Tuesday, sly flow will develop over central NC and as such expect
highs to peak a bit higher in the mid to upper 80s.  Some deeper
moisture may spill into our northern areas late in the day, but
overall forcing should focus precipitation again to our west and
north leaving us dry Tuesday.
As the upper cut off low slowly drifts north-northeast Wednesday
into the weekend ripples of mid-level perturbations will drift
across central NC. With anomalous moisture in place, we`ll see
periods of pre-frontal showers and storms during this stretch. Its a
bit too far out to get too into specifics. However, it`s worth
noting that ensembles do show periods of low Cape/high shear
environments Thursday and Friday. With the slow movement of the
cutoff upper low, hard to imagine we would be outlooked in anything
beyond Marginal at this point. Further, a few of the machine
learning severe outlook analogs are hinting at marginal-level
probabilities over our area during that time period (Pangu, FengWu,
CSU-mlp). Something to watch for sure as we progress through early
next week.
After a hot Wednesday (highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s), cloudy
skies and periods of rain may damped highs into the upper 70s/lower
80s a bit Thursday into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...
Temporary LIFR-IFR restrictions will be possible near and especially
northeast of RWI, FAY, and RDU this morning. However, sharply drier
air just above the surface, evident on observed soundings last
evening at MHX and WAL, will probably favor more dew than fog; and
areas of altocumulus bubbling along the I-95 corridor will also
limit radiational cooling and associated widespread radiation fog
formation. Flight restrictions in the 06Z TAFs are consequently not
as prolonged or impactful as in previous forecasts.
Otherwise, an isolated shower/storm will be possible (~15-20%
probability of occurrence) this afternoon from near AFP to MEB and
FAY, and also from near HNZ to IXA and RWI. Stratus and fog will
likely develop behind a backdoor cold front late tonight-Sunday
morning.
Outlook: Areas of stratus and fog will be possible again late Sunday
night-Monday morning. Showers/storms and flight restrictions are
expected mid to late this upcoming week.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ028-
043-078-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Helock
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...MWS

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion