Noble, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

733
FXUS64 KSHV 171050
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
550 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
- Afternoon isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
  remain in the forecast over the next couple of days, along with
  above normal temperatures.
- Higher rain chances with near seasonal temperatures return by
  the end of the week and continue through the weekend, especially
  across our northern zones.
- Rain chances will continue and become more widespread across the
  region by the first of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
A pseudo Omega Block pattern remains across the CONUS, with upper
ridging stretching from the Texas to Michigan and upper troughing
across the Rockies and Plains, as well as the entire eastern
CONUS. However, the ridge is very weak. This has allowed a weak
short-wave on the backside of the eastern CONUS trough to move
into the region yesterday, resulting in some strong to severe
storms across our South-Central Arkansas and Northeast Louisiana
zones. Some weak outflow boundaries remain across the region from
that earlier convection, which could result in showers developing
overnight. However, coverage should remain very isolated, and
mostly across our Northeast and Central Louisiana zones. We should
see a similar set-up over the next couple of days, with
additional short-waves backdooring into the region. More isolated
to widely scattered convection will be possible during the
afternoon and early evening hours. Progs are hinting at isolated
convection being more spread out across the region, so decided to
put slight chance POPs over the entire forecast area for Wednesday
and Thursday. Above normal temperatures will remain across the
region during this period. Highs will top out in the low to mid
90s, with a few isolated locations in the upper 90s.
The upper pattern will start to shift by the end of the week into
the start of next weekend, as the upper ridge shifts eastward
into the Southeast CONUS. The aforementioned Rockies/Plains upper
trough will shift southward into the our neck of the woods,
putting us in more of a northwest flow pattern. Rain chances will
remain over the region on Friday and Saturday as disturbances move
across the flow. The best chances for precipitation will be along
and north of the I-20 corridor, with some rain possibly lingering
during the overnight period. Afternoon temperatures will remain
in the low to mid 90s in our southern zones, and closer to normal
in our northern zones due to the cloud cover and higher rain
chances.
By the end of the weekend into the first portion of next week, the
upper trough will dig southward through the region, with some
long-term guidance trying to develop a cut-off low across Central
Texas. A more widespread and wetter pattern would take shape under
this set-up, with slightly cooler afternoon highs. /20/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Starting the morning with VFR conditions across all terminals even
through we are flirting with MVFR VSBYs at both the ELD and MLU
terminals. Cannot rule that out until after 13z this morning but
we are also seeing a few isolated showers across NW LA with
elevated early morning cu. There will be more isolated to widely
scattered Tstm coverage with the aid of daytime heating today
across our airspace and have thus kept VCTS going at all terminal
locations with the exception of the ELD terminal where some drier
air has infiltrated our NE airspace. Look for mostly NW winds or
variable winds today with speeds generally less than 10kts outside
Tstm activity today. Any storms should dissipate late this evening
with a remnant elevated cu field likely to prevail overnight.
13
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Spotter activation is not expected over the next 24 hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
MLU  95  70  94  70 /  20  20  20   0
DEQ  94  66  92  66 /  20  20  20  20
TXK  96  70  95  70 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  68  93  68 /  20  20  20   0
TYR  94  70  91  70 /  20  20  20  10
GGG  95  69  93  69 /  20  20  20  10
LFK  95  70  93  69 /  20  20  20   0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...13

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion