North Middlesex, Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

803
FXUS61 KBTV 240652
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
252 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather will continue across northern New York and
Vermont through Friday. Widespread rain is expected on Thursday
as a low pressure system passes to our northwest. Overall drier
weather is expected from Saturday onwards. Temperatures will be
above seasonal normals through the period.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...Low pressure and stationary front
will remain south of our forecast area today, with weak high
pressure ridging into the northern New York and Vermont area
from the northeast. Some scattered light rain showers will be
possible today in our most southerly zones, but most of the
precipitation should stay south of our area. Some breaks in the
clouds this afternoon should allow temperatures to warm into the
lower 70s across our northern zones this afternoon while areas
south remain in the upper 60s. As we head into the overnight
hours, a low pressure system over the Ohio River valley will
track northeastward towards our forecast area. During the second
half of the overnight, after about 2 am, rain will spread into
our area from the southwest. This initial area of showers will
lift north of our area by about 11 am. Right behind this area of
showers will be additional scattered showers, some with
embedded thunder possible for Thursday afternoon. Rain may be
heavy at times. Rainfall areawide should be around three
quarters of an inch, with some areas having around an inch of
rain. Rain showers will continue into the evening on Thursday.
Best chance for thunder appears to be Thursday afternoon across
eastern Vermont where we will have some surface instability
develop. Temperatures on Thursday will be a bit cooler than
today due to lots of clouds and rain across the area, generally
upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...Showers should come to an end by
about midnight Thursday night as cold front pushes east of our
region. A secondary reinforcing cold front will cross the area
on Friday. Tough to completely rule out a shower on Friday as
this surface feature crosses the area, but definitely don`t
expect widespread precipitation like we`ll have Thursday. Have
just a chance for showers mentioned, and temperatures will warm
back through the 70s again even with northwesterly flow in
place.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 138 AM EDT Wednesday...Ridging and high pressure are
expected to build in across the region late this week and into
the weekend, bringing dry and cooler (though still above
average) weather Friday night and Saturday night as lows fall
into the mid 40s and 50s. Saturday should be pleasant, dry, and
warm, then an upper trough is anticipated to swing across
eastern Canada, mainly to our north, on Saturday night and
Sunday.
Chances for measurable precipitation with this feature remain
low, around 10-25%, most likely in the mountains. Highs over the
weekend will likely remain above average in the 70s to low 80s.
High pressure and therefore dry weather are forecast to
continue into the first half of next week as temperatures take a
slow decline towards seasonable normals, with highs going from
the 70s Monday to mostly 60s by midweek. Lows will also fall
from the 40s and 50s Sunday night to the 30s and 40s later.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00z Thursday...This morning`s conditions continue to
present a challenge for all terminals. For the most part,
however, we should see IFR conditions prevail at all terminals
through at least 12Z Wednesday, some places (most likely MSS,
MPV, and SLK) even lingering until 15Z or 16Z Wednesday. Winds
will be light and variable or calm for the rest of the night,
then increase slightly out of the east and southeast this
morning, except at MSS which could have northeasterly flow. This
may result in some mild downsloping at RUT and eventually BTV,
mixing IFR conditions out of there sooner than the others.
Shower chances return 18Z Wednesday onward in association with a
warm frontal boundary.
Outlook...
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA, Patchy BR.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Storm

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion