Northside, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

775
FXUS65 KBOI 062017
AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
217 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...Most of the smoke
is being pushed out by the band of showers moving northeast
through the area, along a shortwave. Showers within the band are
leaving just below 0.1" of rain, but clear skies behind the band
will help destabalize the surface supporting convection this
afternoon and evening. Areas that have been clear for a few
hours in SE Oregon have already shown thunderstorm development,
namely near Burns Oregon. Cumulus buildups over the Owyhees and
Malheur county indicate the instability is already building in
across much of SE Oregon and far SW portions of Idaho. Storms
that form this afternoon could produce outflows up to 45 mph,
locally heavy rainfall, small hail, and lightning. Even areas
far away from storms could experience brief gusts up to 25 mph
from outflows. Precipitable water is still near 1", even behind
the shower band, and HRRR QPF shows storms could produce up to
0.3-0.5" in a small time frame.
Precipitation will taper off
by midnight tonight, and enough instability and moisture will
remain tomorrow afternoon for another shot of storms and showers
across far northern and eastern portions of our area. Storm
characteristics tomorrow will be almost identical to today,
likely developing around 2 PM MDT through 9 PM MDT. Most of the
activity will be out of our area as the shortwave moves
northeastward. Winds behind the wave will support gusts up to 25
mph along the NV border in Oregon and Idaho, with much drier
conditions especially in the afternoon. A low-pressure system
off the Pacific Northwest coast will begin moving inland on
Monday. As the core of the low pressure moves in, clouds will
build and precipitation chances begin to rise going into the
long term.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday... Unsettled weather will be
the story throughout the majority of the long term period. Models
are in good agreement on the Pacific trough making it`s way inland
come Tuesday. This upper-level trough will linger over our area for
the majority of the week, resulting in daily chances of
precipitation (20-60%) and afternoon thunderstorms (10-25%) Tuesday
through Friday. In both cases, the highest chances will be found
across higher terrain. Guidance indicates a low amplitude ridge
building in on Saturday as the trough begins to move east out of our
area. As a result, precipitation will begin to taper off through
Saturday. However, precipitation chances remain non-zero on
Saturday, with a 10-20% chance across much of the area (20-30% in
the Central Idaho Mountains). Temperatures will drop to 5-10 degrees
below normal following a cold frontal passage early Tuesday, before
hovering within that range through Friday. Temperatures will warm to
near normal come Saturday as the low amplitude ridge builds in.
&&
.AVIATION...Mostly VFR. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in e-Oregon and sw-Idaho ending by Sun/06z.
Thunderstorms capable of 40kt outflows, and heavy rain resulting in
MVFR conditions. Mountains obscured in precipitation. Surface winds
outside of outflows: Variable 5-15 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-W
5-15 kt.
KBOI...VFR. 20% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon, most likely
timing between Sun/00z-Sun/03z. Thunderstorms capable of heavy rain
and gusts of 30 kt. Surface winds outside of outflows: Variable 5-10
kt, becoming S-SE under 10 kt after Sun/06z.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.
&&
$$
www.weather.gov/Boise
Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.x.com/NWSBoise
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....NF
AVIATION.....NF

NWS BOI Office Area Forecast Discussion