Nounan, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

995
FXUS65 KPIH 161029
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
429 AM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Limited precipitation chances today
- Dry weather for midweek until the weekend
- Warmer afternoon temperatures return under high pressure
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Early morning satellite imagery shows some mid/high level clouds
across parts of the region, namely around Island Park and areas
along the Wyoming border. These are in associated with an area of
low pressure that pushed through the region yesterday. Local impacts
from this feature are basically over aside from the lingering clouds
and perhaps an isolated shower/storm chance around the Island Park
area later today. Hi-res CAMs show this as the only area with any
chance for precip today as the rest of eastern Idaho looks to remain
dry. Skies should be clear for most of us today with light winds out
of the N/NE today thanks to the cyclonic flow around the
aforementioned low. Temperatures will be chilly to start the day
with widespread 30s and 40s but should warm nicely into the upper
60s and lower 70s across the lower elevations.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 103 PM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Wed through next Mon night. The upper level pattern is
very weak through Sat in the western states, with the ridge sitting
over the Great Basin. This should allow a warming with a dry pattern
through that period. Afternoon temperatures continue to be above
climatic normals for this time of year. The weak pattern means
little to no wind with no feature moving through. The only fly in
the ointment is that such a weak pattern could allow moist and
unstable air from the Gulf of California to make its way into
southern Idaho. However, the NBM is indicating precipitation
probabilities at 10 percent of below for the moment.
On Sun, a very weak upper level trough moves through southern Canada
for two clusters making up 49 percent of the solutions with 26
percent having this trough dig far enough south to perhaps bring
clouds, precipitation, and unstable air. For Mon, about 40 percent
of the solutions continue to have low pressure over some part of
southern Canada. The end of this period has a much faster and more
zonal flow that the weak flow of the first half. Thus the weather at
the end may be more determined by the progression of shortwaves
through this mean flow, and makes the forecast more uncertain for
Sun and Mon. This risk falls out in the 10 to 25 percent range of
probability, so the slight chance risk appears validated for now.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 429 AM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
VFR conditions expected through the period with light N/NE winds at
most locations today as the region resides on the western side of an
area of low pressure. Aside from perhaps some mid/high level clouds
early, skies should clear further over the course of the day with
mostly clear skies expected. Winds will generally be 10 knots or
less through the period although some occasional higher gusts are
possible.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 AM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
A warming and dry pattern looks to take hold for the remainder of
the work week with no rain chances expected until at least the
weekend with high pressure in control of local weather. Temps will
rise above climatic norms by the end of the week which will bring
lower elevation RHs close to 15 percent by Friday but not expecting
winds to be much of a concern. Isolated precip chances return to the
forecast for the weekend with above normal temperatures looking
likely into early next week.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...Messick
AVIATION...McKaughan
FIRE WEATHER...McKaughan

NWS PIH Office Area Forecast Discussion