Oaks Corners, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

168
FXUS61 KBUF 220639
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
239 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving trough of low pressure will finally bring beneficial
rain to the region through midweek, with several rounds of showers
and scattered thunderstorms. Another low pressure system will move
into the Great Lakes late in the week, with additional rain chances
in an unsettled pattern.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A broad area of southwest flow ahead of an approaching trough will
provide a feed of moisture across the region through tonight. A
broken line of showers and thunderstorms is along a moisture
axis from southern Michigan to Lake Ontario early this morning.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible across far western
NY and the southern shore of Lake Ontario through daybreak.
Deeper moisture and a shortwave trough will arrive across the region
today. Daytime heating and dewpoints in the mid 60s will generate
instability across western NY. A stable airmass from a persistent
surface high over New England will extend west and keep a capped
environment across north-central NY today. Surface based
convection is expected to develop across western NY this
afternoon, with medium to high chances of showers and
thunderstorms from the western Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes
region. Modest shear may result in an isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm and the SPC D2 covers far western NY. A southwest
flow off Lake Erie will lessen the chance of rooted convection
across the Niagara Frontier, however upstream showers may move
into the region. Rainfall amounts will average 0.1-0.25" from
Lake Erie to southeast of Lake Ontario and east today. Lesser
amounts expected outside of this area. Warm today with highs in
the mid to upper 70s.
A humid airmass will reside across the region with PWATS around 1.5"
tonight. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible
overnight, with the greatest coverage across the western Southern
Tier to the Finger Lakes region. Rainfall amounts will average 0.25"
to 0.5" overnight, however due to the environment, can`t rule out
localized higher amounts.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
During Tuesday the axis of an elongated...positively-tilted upper
level trough will gradually slip southeastward from the Upper Great
Lakes/central Quebec...with the eastern and western portions of this
trough then gradually separating Tuesday night and Wednesday. As
these separate...the eastern portion will eject east across the
Canadian Maritimes...while the western portion merges with
additional shortwave energy making its way eastward from the Plains
states...leading to the development of a rather broad cutoff low
somewhere between the Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes.
Before this separation occurs...the gradual southeastward
advancement of the upper trough axis will encourage an associated
weak surface cold front and wave of low pressure to push across our
area during the course of Tuesday. In the process...these features
will interact with a rather moist (PWATs of 1.50-1.75") antecedent
airmass and developing modest amounts of diurnally-driven
instability...leading to numerous showers and scattered storms
across interior portions of the CWA... particularly as the front
pushes south during the late morning and afternoon. Further north
and west...convective coverage should be notably lower back closer
to/over Lakes Erie and Ontario as per the shorter-term/higher-
resolution guidance...and as such have cut back on the far-too-
broadbrush likely/categorical PoPs advertised by blended guidance in
these areas.
During Tuesday night convective coverage will wane with the loss of
heating and as the weak cold front/surface wave and deeper moisture
depart to our south and east...and as surface-based ridging edges
southward from Quebec. This should lead to a drier period for later
Tuesday night and Wednesday...though still cannot rule out a few
isolated to widely scattered showers as the lingering troughing
aloft slowly gives way to the developing closed low to our south and
west.
After that time...there is loose agreement amongst the guidance that
the cutoff low to our west will tend to open up and slowly push
eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through the
balance of this period...though there remains a considerable amount
of variance on the details of all this. At the surface...this should
result in some semblance of an attendant surface wave lifting
northward and near/across our region...with this and an attendant
increase in Gulf-based moisture leading to another uptick in shower
potential through Thursday/Thursday night.
While temperatures during this period will generally be cooler than
those of the preceding couple of days...these will still average out
above normal...with readings running roughly 5 degrees above normal
each day...and some 5-10 degrees above normal each night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
While plenty of uncertainty persists with respect to the evolution
of the aforementioned longwave trough and its attendant surface
low...in general the former should continue its eastward trek and
eventually slide out across New England during this period...with
its attendant surface reflection(s) correspondingly pulling east of
our longitude. This should generally lead to a decrease in shower
potential over time...though have retained the chance PoPs
advertised by blended guidance through at least Saturday (and slight
chance PoPs through Sunday) given the ongoing low forecast
confidence. Otherwise...expect temperatures to continue to average
out a little above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are expected across western and
north central NY today. Showers and a few thunderstorms just south
of Lake Ontario will lift northward this morning. Additional showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, mainly
from the Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes region. An isolated
thunderstorm may produce gusty winds. Showers will move into north-
central NY this afternoon, with the potential for thunderstorms this
evening.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight as a humid
airmass resides across the region. Flight conditions will fall to
MVFR/IFR tonight. Periods of low-end VFR are possible at KIAG, KBUF
and KROC late tonight.
Outlook...
Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely along with a few
thunderstorms.
Wednesday through Friday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with
restrictions possible.
&&
.MARINE...
A southerly flow will continue on the Lakes today. Winds up to 20
knots are possible on the east end of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario
this morning and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect until noon.
Winds will continue to lessen through tonight, with light winds and
calm waters tonight through Tuesday night. A northeast wind will
create a moderate chop on the waters starting Wednesday.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion