Ocracoke, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

500
FXUS62 KMHX 021112
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
712 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Imelda and the remnants of Humberto are moving to the
northeast and farther away from ENC but will continue to bring
coastal impacts to the area through late week due to their
respective swells. High pressure will build from the NE into the
weekend bringing a prolonged period of NE to E winds with
seasonable temperatures and generally dry conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 710 AM Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Gusty NE winds continue
 - Coastal impacts continue (see coastal flood section)
Hurricane Imelda and the remnants of Humberto continue to move
northeast and away from ENC. Over land, a surface high is
centered over Quebec and is expanding south across the eastern
US.
Cloudy skies generally along and east of hwy 17, becoming more
clear to the west. The gradient between the offshore systems
and the strengthening high will remain tight, which will keep NE
winds breezy across the FA. Winds will be strongest along the
OBX and Downeast Carteret with gusts up to 35 mph in the
afternoon today. With drier high pressure building in from the
north, a rain free forecast continues with enough breaks in the
clouds for us to see the sun again. This airmass change has
brought a noticeable difference in humidity with fcst dewpoints
into the 50s this afternoon. High temps in the mid 70s for most.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 115 AM Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Gusty NE winds continue
 - Coastal impacts continue (see coastal flood section)
Dry weather continues tonight, with the NE winds continuing to
gradually lessen. This in turn gradually lessens our coastal
flooding concerns tonight. See Coastal Flooding section for more
information. Tonight partly cloudy skies are expected with lows
in the 50s once again. Wind should remain elevated enough to
preclude any fog concerns.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Thursday...Sfc high pressure will be centered off the
Mid-Atlantic coast while upper ridging builds across the Eastern
CONUS into early next week. NE winds continue Friday into Saturday,
then veer to Ely as the sfc high migrates off the Mid-Atlantic
coast. Generally dry weather is expected for most area although a
coastal trough offshore may produce a few showers across the coastal
waters. Some guidance continues to show some of these showers
working their way toward the coast. Temps will be a few degrees
below normal through the week with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Temps warm to near normal over the weekend and early next week with
highs around 80/lower 80s.
By the middle of next week, the upper ridge breaks down as a strong
northern stream trough digs into the Northern Plains and Midwest
with sfc high pressure migrating farther offshore and sfc cold front
approaching from the NW bringing increasing chances of showers
across the region.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 710 AM Thursday...Predominantly VFR conditions are
expected through the period. A pinched pressure gradient between
the high pressure building in from the north and offshore
Imelda will bring wind gusts back up to 15-20 kt in the
afternoon. Lower clouds at 4-5 kft will linger through the
period, but chances of them dropping below 3 kft this morning
remain low (205.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ196-204-205.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ196-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ203.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion