Okefenokee, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

526
FXUS62 KJAX 261809
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
209 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Increased Thunderstorm Coverage Today through Saturday. Isolated
  Strong Afternoon & Evening Storms Today. Main Storm Hazards:
  Gusty Winds & Briefly Flooding Rainfall
- Weekend Tropical Development Near the Bahamas Expected. Higher
  confidence of local marine & surf zone hazards Monday & Tuesday.
  Monitor forecasts at hurricanes.gov
- Moderate Rip Current Risk Today
- Tidal Flooding & Marine Hazard Risk Late Next Week w/NorEaster
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Bouts of showers and thunderstorms will pass over the forecast
area ahead of the advancing cold front, moving from west to east,
throughout today and into tonight with the heaviest amounts of
rainfall expected to occur over southeast Georgia with a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall having been set for Georgia and into
portions of northeast Florida. Rainfall amounts may reach up to
over 2 inches in some areas for southeast Georgia and into the
Suwannee River Valley with the primary threat from stronger storms
today being gusty down burst winds. High temperatures today will
reach up into the mid to upper 80s for inland southeast Georgia
and in the lower 90s for most of northeast Florida. Overnight low
temperatures will drop down into the upper 60s over southeast
Georgia and into the lower 70s for northeast Florida.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday night)
Issued at 204 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
A trough continues to dig across the southeastern CONUS this
weekend, with its associated cold front shifting across the
northern SE GA counties during the morning hours on Saturday and
towards the southern part of the CWA by the afternoon before it
begins to slow and stall by late Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Showers and storms will continue to move across the area
as the front shifts from west to east into Saturday evening. With
any storms that do develop, strong to marginal severe storms will
be possible, but weak to modest diurnal heating, weak mean flow
and shear, will likely keep most storms below severe levels.
Increased cloud cover will keep temperature highs only reaching
into the mid to upper 80s, with the warmer temperatures along the
southern portions of the CWA on Saturday. Come Sunday, chances of
precipitation will be lower compared to Saturday as the frontal
boundary will be stalled over the area, with the relatively higher
chances ahead of the stalled front, with drier air behind the
boundary. Temperature highs on Sunday will be in the 80s, with
warmer temperatures across inland locations behind the frontal
boundary. Overnight lows for both Saturday and Sunday will be
primarily be in the upper 60s over the Suwannee Valley Region of
NE FL and SE GA, while the lower 70s for the rest of NE FL.
At this time, NHC currently expects AL94 becoming a Tropical
Depression during the upcoming weekend as it nears the central and
northwest Bahamas, with the system trending to move towards the
southeastern states by late Sunday/ early Monday Morning. The
likely impacts for the local area will focus on our Marine and
Surf zones as the system looks to trek parallel to the local coast
prior to a potential shift towards the west. Potential hazards
include strengthening northeast winds, building seas, frequent rip
currents, rough surf, and potential tidal flooding impacts.
Looking inland, scattered showers and storms will be possible
extending from the coast and towards US-301 on Monday, higher
chances along coastal locations.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday) Issued at 204 PM EDT Fri Sep 26
2025
By Tuesday, current guidance has the AL94 moving towards the
north of the local area somewhere along the Carolinas coast line
Monday Night/Tuesday Morning. Otherwise, a more zonal pattern
aloft will begin to develop into midweek, which will allow for
drier air into the area as winds shift to become northwesterly by
Tuesday and Wednesday. Only Scattered chances of showers and
storms is expected through midweek at this time. By the later half
of the upcoming week, a ridge along the eastern seaboard will
look to keep things breezy along the local waters with a more
northeasterly type of event developing sometime during the back
half of the upcoming week.
Temperatures trend near to possibly slightly below average Tuesday
through Friday pending how this pattern evolves.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 204 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Bands of showers and storms will continue to develop through the
afternoon and into this evening with convection becoming moving
offshore by around 02z and then becoming more dispersed later
tonight. Ceilings will drop down to IFR levels overnight and into
early Saturday morning with a potential for BR at VQQ and GNV by
around 06z-08z. Winds will be predominantly mild and variable
throughout the forecast period whiles gusts associated with
stronger afternoon storms can reach upwards 30 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Increased storminess today as a front approaches from the west with
continued southerly winds. The front lingers over the area tonight
into Saturday with continued waves of storms. The front moves south
of the local waters Saturday. Northeast winds increase Sunday and
Monday as high pressure strengthens north of the region and a
potential tropical system nears the Bahamas. Building seas and
increasing winds are forecast to reach Advisory levels by Monday as
the tropical system tracks north of the Bahamas. An extended
duration of Advisory conditions is likely next week due to elevated
winds and seas. Local interests should monitor the latest forecasts
on this potential tropical cyclone from the National Hurricane
Center.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  85  66  86 /  70  50  20  30
SSI  71  83  72  84 /  60  60  40  40
JAX  71  86  70  87 /  60  60  30  50
SGJ  72  86  72  86 /  60  70  50  60
GNV  71  88  69  90 /  50  70  20  30
OCF  72  88  71  89 /  40  70  20  40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion