Oneill, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

605
FXUS63 KLBF 121927
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
227 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible this
  evening, primarily west of and Ogallala through Valentine
  line. A few storms could be strong across the northwest
  Sandhills, with hail and strong winds as the main threats.
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
  across much of western and north central Nebraska Saturday
  evening through Sunday.
- Active weather returns Tuesday into Wednesday, with threats
  for showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
A deep and elongated upper trough currently extends from Baja,
Mexico into southern Alberta Canada. An upper ridge axis exists
further downstream from Texas north into the western Great
Lakes. Southwest flow aloft resides in between these features
from the Four Corners Region northward into the Northern
Plains.
A disturbance over the Four Corners Region will lift northeast
this evening across the western Sandhills. Surface low pressure
will reside from southwest Nebraska and the western Sandhills.
Should initially see isolated development from northeast CO
develop and track northeast across the western and northwest
Sandhills this evening. The 18Z LBF sounding is very dry to
about 600mb, then fairly moist above this, with a PWAT of 1.14
inches. So, a lot of dry air to overcome for the showers to
make it to the surface. Deep layer shear is weak at below 20kts
across the west, so most storms should be weak and short lived
this evening. Backed winds near the Pine Ridge, where a weak
front develops could help sustain storms, with a few strong
storms possible containing strong winds and hail. Activity
should end after midnight.
Saturday, The upper trough will advance eastward over the
Central and Southern Rockies and into the lee of the Rockies
over CO and WY. Surface low pressure along the lee of the
Rockies will deepen further east into the panhandle and western
South Dakota. Low chances for showers/storms (20-30%) areas
west of Highway 83 after 21Z Saturday. This drags the
associated frontal boundary eastward into the Sandhills Saturday
night, with an amplified SSW flow aloft. Scattered to numerous
shower and thunderstorm development is expected across the west,
with eastward development overnight. Long, straight hodographs
near the frontal boundary could support a few strong storms.
This should lead to beneficial rainfall for much of western
Nebraska, with PWAT values exceeding the 90th percentile climo
and suggesting efficient rainfall. NBM probabilities of a half
inch or more is around 40 percent for Saturday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Widespread showers and scattered storms slowly expand eastward
into Sunday, as the upper trough axis crosses the area and a slow
moving surface low and frontal boundary gradually moves east.
PWAT values remain above the 90th percentile Sunday afternoon.
Efficient rainfall will continue, with much of the area seeing
beneficial accumulations by the time the system begins to exit
the area later Sunday night. As with Saturday, a few stronger
storms will be possible east of HWY 83 on Sunday, driven by how
much wind shear and destabilization occurs.
Drier conditions on Monday, as the system departs the area.
Another upper trough crosses the region Tuesday into Wednesday.
A cold front begins to push into the area Tuesday. Thunderstorm
development will again be possible along this boundary, with
some threat for strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night. This will also lead to slightly below average
temperatures, in the low to mid 70s by Wednesday. Shortwave
ridging returns Thursday into Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday morning
across western and north central Nebraska. The exception to
this would be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
this evening and overnight, primarily for terminals near and
west of HWY 61.
Winds remain from the south to southwest today at 5 to 15KT.
Winds then become light south to light and variable overnight.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion