Paint Rock, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

207
FXUS64 KHUN 201042
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
542 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
The overall synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged amounting
to a similar forecast as the previous few days. An upper low
across the northern Plains will continue to pivot through the
north central conus. Locally, weak waves of vorticity off the base
of the associated trough axis will support another low chances of
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. We will likely reach
convective temps by early afternoon with models highlighting
convective initiation in our terrain areas in NE AL first.
Additional showers and storms may develop in NW AL off of a
lingering boundary and move SE across the CWA. With any storms
that do develop, CAMs continue to highlight the presence of an
inverted v profile across the TN Valley this afternoon. This will
make gusty winds possibly among the strongest storms with
lightning and heavy rainfall being additional threats.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Over the course of the short term period, a developing cyclonic
gyre across the northern Plains will gradually develop eastward
into southern Ontario and adjacent portions of the northern Great
Lakes, resulting in gradual amplification of a mid-level trough
extending southward into the northwest/north-central Gulf. In the
low-levels, a Canadian surface high migrating southeastward across
Ontario/Quebec (during the near term period) and into New England
by 12Z Sunday will lead to pressure rises in the lee of the
southern Appalachians, resulting in a minor increase in southerly
winds across our forecast area. As southwesterly flow in the
700-500 mb layer begins to strengthen ahead of the amplifying
trough to our west, the setup will favor clusters of showers and
thunderstorms traveling east-southeastward from the Ozarks early
Sunday morning and riding along a naturally-induced confluence
axis (related to the ridge to our east) that will reside to our
north (across northern TN/southern KY). Thus, from Saturday night-
Sunday, we will keep our highest POPs (20-30%) north of the TN
River, but will maintain a lower POP of 10-20% elsewhere as
scattered afternoon convection should materialize across much of
MS/AL on Sunday.
As the mid-level trough to our west begins to shift slowly
eastward on Sunday night/Monday, a SSW low-level jet of 15-20
knots will become established across the local area, which could
enable some backbuilding of storm clusters to our north into our
region (especially if coverage is great enough to generate
multiple congealing outflow boundaries). POPs have been increased
into the 20-40% range on Monday to account for this scenario, but
with a notable decreasing trend on Monday night as the axis of the
mid-level trough will cross our region during this period,
veering southwest flow aloft to northwest. Although deep-layer
flow/shear will remain weak, steepening mid-level lapse rates will
contribute to higher CAPE on Monday and perhaps a greater risk of
strong storms (producing gusty winds/small hail and frequent
lightning) during the afternoon/evening. Highs throughout the
short term will range from the mid 80s (east) to l-m 90s
elsewhere, with lows in the m-u 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A somewhat unsettled weather pattern will continue into the long
term period as a series of upper waves pivot across the Ozarks and
into the TN/OH River Valleys ahead of a closed upper low. This
will result in increasing rain and thunderstorm chances as we head
into the mid- week period as well as cooler temperatures. The
heaviest activity is expected on Wednesday where we will have to
watch for the threat of localized flooding as PWAT values climb
near 2". There may also be a period where favorable instability
and shear overlap and could bring the risk for a few strong to
severe storms so this will need to be monitored over the coming
days. A cold front will push through the area Wednesday night into
Thursday and rain chances should gradually taper off into the
weekend. Temperatures will remain in the upper 70s/lower 80s for
highs and lows will cool down to the low/mid 60s by the end of the
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
VFR conditions will be the prevailing flight category through the
TAF period. Low rain and storm chances will be present this
afternoon however confidence in direct impacts to the terminals is
too low to include in the TAF at this time. If a storm does move
over the terminal it could briefly lower ceilings and
visibilities to MVFR.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...RAD

NWS HUN Office Area Forecast Discussion