Paint Rock, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

550
FXUS64 KHUN 202340
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
640 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today into Tonight)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Cumulus field has developed over the last couple of hours east if
I-65 over the higher elevations of northeast Alabama and southern
middle Tennessee as shown by current satellite imagery. A few
showers have also developed in Dekalb and Franklin (TN) counties
over the last hour with lightning not too far in the future.
Gusty, outflow winds will once again drive additional initiation
across the Tennessee Valley throughout the afternoon but should
still remain fairly isolated. Steering flow remains weak (roughly
5-10 knots) so localized flooding issues will be a concern.
Convection should dwindle after sunset with the loss of daytime
heating leaving the rest of the night dry with lows in the
mid/upper 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Syntopic setup throughout the short term period will be focused
on a trough centering over the Great Lakes region deepening
southward into the northern Gulf into early next week as high
pressure shifts from the NE U.S. into the central Atlantic. A
secondary shortwave will transition from the northern Rockies
towards the Great Lakes region, assimilating with the
aforementioned trough, allowing for further amplification as we
approach the mid-week time frame. Within the east southeasterly
flow, a couple of weak vort maxes will transition across the
Tennessee Valley throughout the short term period as
southwesterly flow increases Monday into Tuesday with the trough
strengthening to our north and west. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will continue each day at 25%-50% as a result; lower
along and south of the TN River and higher north of the river.
Shear values are not impressive early next week but with
increasing instability and a slight increase in forcing, the
environment will be capable of maintaining some reasonable
updrafts and a few stronger storms with gusty winds and small hail
will be possible. Highs remain in the upper 80s/low 90s with mild
low temps in the mid- upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A somewhat unsettled weather pattern will continue into the long
term period as a series of upper waves pivot across the Ozarks and
into the TN/OH River Valleys ahead of a closed upper low. This
will result in increasing rain and thunderstorm chances as we head
into the mid- week period as well as cooler temperatures. The
heaviest activity is expected on Wednesday where we will have to
watch for the threat of localized flooding as PWAT values climb
near 2". There may also be a period where favorable instability
and shear overlap and could bring the risk for a few strong to
severe storms so this will need to be monitored over the coming
days. A cold front will push through the area Wednesday night into
Thursday and rain chances should gradually taper off into the
weekend. Temperatures will remain in the upper 70s/lower 80s for
highs and lows will cool down to the low/mid 60s by the end of the
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Will hold onto VFR conditions for most of the night until a low
chance of MVFR fog, ~5-7 mi, develops again in the early morning
hours tomorrow. Will monitor obs for any amendments needed. Will
see an increase in cloud cover before a low chance (20%) of
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KG
SHORT TERM....KG
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...JMS

NWS HUN Office Area Forecast Discussion