Partlow, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

269
FXUS61 KLWX 261826
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
226 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall southeast of the area this weekend.
High pressure over eastern Canada builds south early next week
while a tropical system lifts northward across the southwestern
Atlantic. Depending on track, additional rainfall chances are
possible next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of mid afternoon, surface analysis showed a surface cold
front stalled over southeastern Virginia. The parent trough
axis aloft was stalling overhead.
The upper-level trough will remain stalled across the region
through tonight while the surface cold front remains stalled
just to our southeast. A couple of spotty showers can`t be ruled
out mainly between the Appalachians and US-15 and down along the
I-64 corridor. Otherwise, mainly dry weather is expected with a
mix of sun and clouds. High temperatures are on track to reach
the lower 80s (70s mountains) amid light northwest flow.
Clouds will increase tonight as a wave of low pressure develops
along the front stalled to the south. Showers, a few of which
could be moderately heavy, are likely to develop overnight in
the I-64 corridor. Light northerly winds may go calm, and where
breaks in the clouds develop and low-level moisture lingers fog
could form. Low temperatures will range from the 50s over the
higher elevations to the upper 60s in the major city centers.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Widespread showers are expected Saturday as forcing and moisture
increase on the east side of a developing cutoff upper low over
the Tennessee River Valley. Showers should start exiting the
area to the east late Saturday night/early Sunday. It will be
much cooler Saturday due to thick clouds and rain with highs in
the mid to upper 60s. Some of the latest guidance hints at the
potential for bands of moderate to heavy rainfall, but given the
recent dry conditions flooding issues are not expected.
On Sunday, the upper-level low starts filling in, while at the
surface, a high pressure center over the Upper Midwest starts
shifting east toward the northern Mid-Atlantic. This should
shunt clouds and precip chances across central and southern VA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Discrepancies between the models with the two tropical systems
remain a factor in the entire extended forecast.
The 12z GFS model keeps Humberto well offshore and out to sea, while
curving around Bermuda Monday through Thursday. Also, according to
the GFS, the developing tropical system near the Bahamas could
intensify and move toward the South Carolina Coast, making landfall
along the South Carolina Coast Monday night, then meander about the
Southeast US midweek before getting pulled out to sea. This path and
timing could result in moderate to heavy rain in our region Tuesday
morning and midday. This is just one scenario of the many models.
The 12z ECMWF model keeps Humberto well offshore and out to
sea, while curving around Bermuda Monday through Thursday. Also,
according to the ECMWF, the developing tropical system near the
Bahamas could intensify and move toward the South Carolina
Coast, stalling it nearshore South Carolina from Tuesday through
Thursday morning, then moving onshore the South Carolina Coast
late Thursday. Considering the possibility of the tropical
system stalling and it slowing down a little, this would allow
the strong ridge of high pressure building southward from Canada
to keep it and most of the heaviest rainfall well to our south
and out of our region. Our current forecast favors a drier
scenario in our region, but a lot can change with newer model
runs.
The 12z CMC model is similar to the ECMWF solution in which it
keeps Humberto offshore and stalls the other tropical system
arriving from the Bahamas offshore of the Georgia and South
Carolina Coast Tuesday morning. After a 12 to 24 hour stalling
of the system, the CMC pushes the tropical system out to sea a
few hundred miles Wednesday and Wednesday night, then moves
northwestward making landfall late in the week along the
Carolina Coast.
Keep in mind, these are just 3 of dozens of possible scenarios.
The forecast will depend highly on the track and strength of the
system currently approaching the Bahamas, but most likely its
worst impacts stay to our south locally. For further details on
the tropical systems, please visit hurricanes.gov.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through this evening. Patchy fog is
possible near KMRB early Saturday morning. Lower CIGs may
develop overnight near KCHO, with lower CIGs and rain chances
expanding north and east through Saturday. Light NW flow becomes
N tonight then E Saturday around 5 kts or less.
After rain/showers exit Saturday night, expect low clouds/fog
to redevelop late Saturday night/early Sunday with additional
CIG/VSBY restrictions likely. Conditions will improve Sunday,
except at KCHO where low clouds are likely to persist all day
until drier arrives Sunday night. Scattered showers will still
be possible near KCHO during this time amid light E flow.
VFR conditions Monday through Tuesday night. This depends on
the timing, movement and intensity of the tropical systems
through the workweek. If the tropics lean toward a wetter and
windier solution, then IFR and LIFR could be the flavor.
Winds most likely northeast 5 to 15 knots through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Mainly sub-SCA winds are expected through the early part of
next week. Winds may strengthen in easterly flow Saturday
afternoon and night, but confidence is low. Winds will be light
NW today, N tonight, then E this weekend as a front stalls to
the south and high pressure builds to the north.
No marine hazards Monday and Monday night. Small Craft
Advisories may be possible Tuesday and Tuesday night in the
open Chesapeake Bay and lower tidal Potomac River depending on
the track and intensity of the tropical system. Winds northeast
10 to 15 knots through the period, possibly near 20 knots
Tuesday into Tuesday night.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR/DHOF
NEAR TERM...DHOF
SHORT TERM...LFR/DHOF
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...LFR/KLW/DHOF
MARINE...LFR/KLW/DHOF

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion