Pawhuska, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

179
FXUS64 KTSA 131639
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1139 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
- Heat index values of mid 90s to near 100 degrees this weekend,
   which could increase heat stress potential for those with
   outdoor plans.
- A few afternoon showers or a stray thunderstorm possible this
   afternoon, mainly in far NW AR. Additional low precip chances
   develop Sunday afternoon along and west of Highway 75. However,
   most locations likely remain dry with above normal temperatures
   into next week.
- Slightly higher rain chances arrive mid next week with
   temperatures falling back near average.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
High pressure remains in place across the area today. Temperatures
will again rise to well above normal readings, generally in the low
to mid 90s. With dew points in the mid 60s to near 70 F this will
again push afternoon heat indices to 95-100 F. Partly to mostly
sunny skies and dry conditions are expected. The one exception may
be in northwest Arkansas where some subtle forcing may allow for a
couple of isolated pop up showers or thunderstorms this afternoon
(15% chance). Tonight will be another mild night with lows again in
the upper 60s to low 70s. A few areas could again see shallow patchy
fog near dawn but it is not expected to be widespread.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
High pressure shifts eastward Sunday in response to a glancing blow
from an upper level low. Surface effects will be minimal with high
temperatures maybe dropping 1-2 F. However, the system will pass
close enough to potentially kick off a few isolated showers and
storms west of Highway 75 Sunday afternoon (10-20% chance). High
pressure will then reintensify Monday and Tuesday, with high
temperatures holding in the low to mid 90s. Afternoon heat indices
won`t be quite as warm as today, but will still be hot, in the
mid to upper 90s. Lows will similarly remain elevated in the upper
60s to low 70s. Dry conditions are also expected Monday and
Tuesday, with just a slight (10-15%) chance of an afternoon high
terrain shower or two.
By the middle of next week upper level ridging will amplify over
western Canada sending a trough south into the Plains, which will
merge with an existing weak upper level feature. Although ensemble
guidance continues to oscillate with respect to the main aspects
of this feature, most guidance does bring it south into the area
Wednesday to Thursday. During this time, temperatures should at
least cool into the 80s (possibly lower if the coldest guidance
verifies) with rain chances ramping up. There is no indication of
widespread severe weather or flooding rains at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Some light fog will remain possible at KBVO for the first hour or
so of the forecast period, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  92  71  92 /   0  10   0  10
FSM   71  95  73  95 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   70  92  69  92 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   67  91  67  91 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   68  92  67  92 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   68  92  69  92 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   70  92  70  92 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   69  92  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
F10   69  90  69  92 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   71  90  70  90 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...05

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion