Payson Lakes, Utah Weather Forecast Discussion

554
FXUS65 KSLC 150957
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
357 AM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...A storm system will graze northern Utah through
Tuesday, bringing cooler temperatures and some light
precipitation. High pressure brings a drying and warming trend for
midweek before moisture increases for the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM (After 12Z/6AM Wednesday)...A Pacific Northwest low is
grazing northern Utah this morning, with scattered showers
continuing to impact areas near the Utah/Idaho border. Guidance
indicates this activity will wrap up by mid to late morning as the
low continues eastward away from the area. In its wake,
temperatures will be noticeably cooler across northern Utah and
southwest Wyoming today, with maxes running about 5F cooler than
yesterday`s highs.
As the low opens up and splits Monday night, a trailing wave is
expected to move back into northern Utah and southwest Wyoming
Monday night into Tuesday, bringing another round of light
showers, primarily focused over northeast Utah and southwest
Wyoming. Highs will also cool a bit more, running up to 5F below
seasonal normals by Tuesday afternoon.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Wednesday)...As a longwave trough
continues to slowly exit eastward on Wednesday, high pressure will
begin to move into Utah, bringing a very dry air mass and a slight
increase in temperatures through Thursday. Precipitation chances are
nearly zero across most areas, though a weak trailing wave from the
aforementioned exiting trough could result in a few isolated showers
across the Uintas on Wednesday afternoon.
However, this dry period will be short-lived. As the ridge axis
shifts overhead by Friday, southerly flow will develop across much
of the area, resulting in another moisture surge. There is still
some uncertainty with the magnitude and extent of this moisture,
though confidence is highest across southwestern Utah where ensemble
mean PWAT in St. George reaches 1.00" by Friday afternoon. Other
areas of the state can expect at least a modest increase in
moisture, though ensemble spread is higher. Showers and
thunderstorms will likely increase in coverage through at last
Saturday.
Confidence in the longwave pattern decreases greatly later in the
weekend, with one main question being how long active weather will
stick around. Thus, PoPs remain fairly low for Sunday and beyond.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...Winds will persist out of the south around 8-
12kts through the early morning, but will shift back to
northwesterly a bit earlier than is typical, around ~15-16z. VFR
conditions will prevail with FEW-SCT mid-level clouds.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Showers will continue to
decrease in coverage this morning across northern Utah, likely
diminishing by 13z. Winds across northern Utah/southwestern Wyoming
will favor northerly to northwesterly winds this afternoon, with
most other areas experiencing typical diurnal wind patterns. VFR
conditions will prevail with FEW-SCT mid-level clouds across
northern areas (clear skies across southern Utah).
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A storm system is currently grazing northern Utah,
bringing scattered showers near the Utah/Idaho border. Associated
precipitation will diminish greatly mid to late morning, with a
noticeable cooldown in northern Utah temperatures for the
afternoon. A trailing wave from the system will bring some
additional showers overnight into Tuesday morning, primarily in
the vicinity of the Uintas. High pressure will bring drier
conditions Wednesday into Thursday with a steady warming trend.
Southerly flow will start to draw moisture northward into the
state from the south on Friday, with precipitation chances
increasing over the weekend as the moisture continues to move in.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
LONG TERM/AVIATION...Cunningham
For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

NWS SLC Office Area Forecast Discussion