Pencer, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

969
FXUS63 KFGF 241255
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
755 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Morning Fog, locally dense this Wednesday. Continued streak of
  above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions into early
  next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 755 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Dense fog band into Fargo-Moorhead metro, with most dense part
over the cities. So based on reports of very low vsby in the
city of Fargo and Moorhead went ahead with dense fog advisory
into the southern RRV.
UPDATE
Issued at 712 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Fog is fog this morning, Overall though has behaved with fog
mostly in NW MN and shown up along the ND/MN border in a band
from Pembina to EGF/Crookston and has recently moved into City
of Fargo and Moorhead. Have a more ground fog situation farther
east that did fill in recently Bemidji and Park Rapids.
Meanwhile DVL region fog situation is better.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...Synopsis...
Weak surface front with a NW wind shift pretty much stalled out
just east of the immediate Red River valley and is focus for fog
formation so far, especially in far NW MN into SE Manitoba with
a bit more patchy ground fog in NE ND. Favorable conditions
rest of the morning in NE ND and NW MN for increased coverage of
fog so went ahead with dense fog advisory for most of NE ND
into NW MN. Some fog may occur farther south into southeast ND
and west central MN as well so will monitor.
Weak front washes out this morning as winds turn south-
southwest today, though light in speeds again. Should see high
temps back up a bit closer to Monday levels, with highs mid 70s
to low 80s. Did boost NBM temps a bit higher using blend of
NBM90 and NBM. Difference not great but closer to 80 for many
areas.
A bit stronger cold front moves thru late tonight into Thursday
and thinking enough mixing at the low levels to prevent fog many
areas this Wed night/early Thursday, exception being southeast
fcst area (BJI-Wahpeton and east). This is per HRRR. Even HRRR
though dont have much in the way of low vsbys centered around
10-13z Thu. Cooler air into the area Thursday and Thursday
night with a good 10 degrees cooler in many areas across the
north for Thursday highs. Cooler all areas Thursday night with
lows in the 40s.
South wind starts up Friday ahead of a stronger surface low and
500 mb short wave moving thru Saskatchewan. Temps will boost
back to the mid 70s to low 80s.
Cold front moves thru Friday night and the far south end of a
few showers or even t-storms may skirt Lake of the Woods. West
or northwest wind Saturday and about 4-8 degrees cooler for
highs compared to Friday. Temps boost back up with south winds
on Sunday with upper 70s to low 80s with warm temperatures thru
next Tuesday as 500 mb ridge builds into Minnesota.
After Oct 1...signs point to a potential change in that some
rain chances may occur as 500 mb trough enters the western U.S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 712 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Typical fog and high variabilty from place to place. Band of
thicker fog did finally set up at 12z from Hallock to
Fargo...though it took until the last hour to move into Fargo
proper. Fog may move in yet into GFK as satellite shows west
edge of fog hugging the Red River. Fog and low cloud areas to
mix out 14-16z leaving sunny sky. Of course a few fog patches
may continue til 17z or so.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NDZ007-008-
     015-016-026>030-039-053-054.
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion