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Pencer, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

969
FXUS63 KFGF 241255
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 755 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Morning Fog, locally dense this Wednesday. Continued streak of above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions into early next week.

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.UPDATE... Issued at 755 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Dense fog band into Fargo-Moorhead metro, with most dense part over the cities. So based on reports of very low vsby in the city of Fargo and Moorhead went ahead with dense fog advisory into the southern RRV.

UPDATE Issued at 712 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Fog is fog this morning, Overall though has behaved with fog mostly in NW MN and shown up along the ND/MN border in a band from Pembina to EGF/Crookston and has recently moved into City of Fargo and Moorhead. Have a more ground fog situation farther east that did fill in recently Bemidji and Park Rapids. Meanwhile DVL region fog situation is better.

&&

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...Synopsis...

Weak surface front with a NW wind shift pretty much stalled out just east of the immediate Red River valley and is focus for fog formation so far, especially in far NW MN into SE Manitoba with a bit more patchy ground fog in NE ND. Favorable conditions rest of the morning in NE ND and NW MN for increased coverage of fog so went ahead with dense fog advisory for most of NE ND into NW MN. Some fog may occur farther south into southeast ND and west central MN as well so will monitor.

Weak front washes out this morning as winds turn south- southwest today, though light in speeds again. Should see high temps back up a bit closer to Monday levels, with highs mid 70s to low 80s. Did boost NBM temps a bit higher using blend of NBM90 and NBM. Difference not great but closer to 80 for many areas.

A bit stronger cold front moves thru late tonight into Thursday and thinking enough mixing at the low levels to prevent fog many areas this Wed night/early Thursday, exception being southeast fcst area (BJI-Wahpeton and east). This is per HRRR. Even HRRR though dont have much in the way of low vsbys centered around 10-13z Thu. Cooler air into the area Thursday and Thursday night with a good 10 degrees cooler in many areas across the north for Thursday highs. Cooler all areas Thursday night with lows in the 40s.

South wind starts up Friday ahead of a stronger surface low and 500 mb short wave moving thru Saskatchewan. Temps will boost back to the mid 70s to low 80s.

Cold front moves thru Friday night and the far south end of a few showers or even t-storms may skirt Lake of the Woods. West or northwest wind Saturday and about 4-8 degrees cooler for highs compared to Friday. Temps boost back up with south winds on Sunday with upper 70s to low 80s with warm temperatures thru next Tuesday as 500 mb ridge builds into Minnesota.

After Oct 1...signs point to a potential change in that some rain chances may occur as 500 mb trough enters the western U.S.

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.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 712 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Typical fog and high variabilty from place to place. Band of thicker fog did finally set up at 12z from Hallock to Fargo...though it took until the last hour to move into Fargo proper. Fog may move in yet into GFK as satellite shows west edge of fog hugging the Red River. Fog and low cloud areas to mix out 14-16z leaving sunny sky. Of course a few fog patches may continue til 17z or so.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NDZ007-008- 015-016-026>030-039-053-054. MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MNZ001>009- 013>017-022>024-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Riddle

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion

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