Perch, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

756
FXUS62 KRAH 181753
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
150 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area into the weekend with a
warming trend. A weak back-door cold front will slide south through
the area late Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...
What is left of the low pressure system on Wed is simply a broad
trough off the NC/VA coast at the moment. Satellite imagery reveals
lingering low stratus across the northern Coastal Plain and far
eastern NC at the moment. Lingering low-level moisture should favor
the development of afternoon cumulus across the Piedmont as well.
This evening, with general high pressure overhead, should see the
daytime cumulus disperse after sunset, though cannot rule out some
patchy clouds in the south with a mid-level trough over GA/SC. After
highs today near 80 in the NE and upper 80s in the SW, low
temperatures should dip into the low to mid 60s, except some
isolated upper 50s in the Coastal Plain. Patchy ground fog will be
possible with some pooling of the low/mid 60s dewpoints, mainly
along and east of I-95. The HREF/RAP/HRRR are indicating this
potential, likely from crossover temperatures being met or exceeded.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...
Patchy morning ground fog along the Coastal Plain and eastern
Sandhills should disperse shortly after sunrise. A mainly sunny day
should abound with high pressure over the region. Aloft, models show
a weak mid-level shortwave over upstate SC. While the impact from
this will be little, surprisingly a few of the CAMs are suggesting
some very isolated pockets of showers developing over the mountains
of NC and parts of northeastern SC and even a few perhaps near the
southern Piedmont. Weak instability could fuel these isolated
showers. Overall, I think we will be dry given the subsidence over
the area. Highs will be rather warm to close out the work week as
the airmass warms further. Highs will warm some 5-10 degrees above
normal in the upper 80s to around 90. Patchy ground fog will be
possible again Sat morning with lingering low-level moisture,
especially over the Coastal Plain and eastern Sandhills.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...
* Above Normal Temperatures Will Persist
* Rain Chances Return Next Week, Though Uncertainty Exists
Saturday: A weak back-door cold front will slide south through the
area late in the day. Ahead of the front, temperatures will rise
well into the 80s, with some locations potentially reaching 90
degree.  Weak instability and little to moisture advection into the
area should limit rain chances to isolated showers as the front
passes, but most locations will remain dry. Lows Saturday night 60
to 65, with post-frontal NELY low-level flow favoring areas of
stratus/clouds early Sunday morning.
Sunday through Early Week: Surface high pressure extending southward
along much of the Eastern Seaboard will bring slightly cooler, yet
still above normal temperatures. Highs 80-85F, with overnight lows
in the lower to mid 60s.
Mid to Late Week: An upper trough entering the Pacific Northwest
will dig and close off into a deep low over the US Plains early next
week and then linger over the central US and mid MS Valley through
mid to late week. Southerly moisture transport ahead of this system
should eventually increase moisture transport into the Carolinas,
brining a return of rain chances. However, growing model spread in
the system`s eastward progression lowers confidence in the exact
timing and coverage of rainfall across central NC.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...
There is high confidence in VFR to start the TAF period. Lingering
low-level moisture will favor the development of some afternoon to
early evening stratocumulus, primarily across the eastern terminals
of RDU, FAY, and RWI. These clouds will disperse after sunset. With
high pressure in control, winds will turn calm. Dewpoints hovering
in the low to middle 60s are forecast to pool over the Coastal Plain
tonight and early Fri, favoring the development of patchy ground fog
near FAY/RWI. Confidence is not particularly high but crossover
temperatures should be met or exceeded at FAY/RWI, favoring the
introduction of some restrictions. VFR should prevail the remainder
of Fri, with light and variable winds under high pressure.
Outlook: Patchy ground fog is again possible Sat morning. A backdoor
cold front moving through Sat night could favor sub-VFR CIG/VIS
restrictions early Sun.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...Kren

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion