Pheba, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

806
FXUS64 KJAN 191805
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
105 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Today & Tonight...
Upstream convection has unexpectedly stalled out just to our
northwest, while simultaneously deepening. The current thinking is
that once the supporting jet begins to shift, this should allow for
those showers and thunderstorms to finally make their way into our
area, especially along the ArkLaMiss Delta region this afternoon and
could persist a couple of hours after sunset.
Should we receive those showers in the Delta and northern reaches of
the area, fog/mist development will be possible in those areas. High
surface moisture and low temperatures bottoming out in the mid 60s
will allow for short lived thermal cross-over just before and after
sunrise.
Through the Weekend...
Tomorrow and Sunday the forecast area may be more suppressed below
upper-level shortwave ridging, but moisture values should still
support at least a few isolated showers or storms with daytime
heating.
Through Next Week...
The current pattern will break down over the next few days,
resulting in a more progressive zonal flow pattern over the CONUS
through the next work week. A few low pressure systems moving
through the region and deeper moisture pooled in the Deep South may
actually yield some heavy rainfall potential before the week is
over. /OAJ/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR flight categories will overall prevail at area TAF sites over
the next 24 hours. Isolated convection will again be possible
across the area this afternoon, but isolated to scattered
convection will particularly be possible across the Delta region
later this afternoon into this evening as a weak disturbance aloft
moves east across the Mid-South region. If convection is indeed
observed on-site, namely at KGLH & KGWO, it could briefly reduce
both ceilings and visibilities to MVFR/IFR categories. Winds will
subside this evening, becoming calm to light and variable around 3
knots overnight. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       95  69  94  70 /  20  20   0   0
Meridian      95  68  95  68 /  20  20   0   0
Vicksburg     94  68  95  70 /  20  20   0   0
Hattiesburg   95  68  96  70 /  20  20   0   0
Natchez       94  68  94  69 /  20  20   0   0
Greenville    93  68  94  69 /  20  20   0   0
Greenwood     95  67  96  69 /  20  20   0   0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
OAJ/OAJ/19

NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion