Your favorites:

Pickering, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

122
FXUS63 KEAX 211929
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 229 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to potentially severe storms possible this afternoon, mainly for areas south of an Olathe, KS to Macon, MO line. Winds to 60 mph and quarter size hail possible in the strongest storms.

- Additional strong to potentially severe storms possible late Monday afternoon into the overnight hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Thicker higher-level cloud cover, associated with decaying storms and possibly an MCV in northeastern KS, is spreading across the northern half of the forecast area. South of this, more robust instability is building with about 1500 J/kg SBCAPE as of 18-19Z. An area of low-level convergence south of the area has helped initiate convection that is now, as of 19Z, moving into southeastern portions of the forecast. Deep-layer shear remains fairly weak so the overall severe weather threat is fairly marginal. But some wind gusts to 60 mph and hail to quarter size is possible with the strongest storms. This trend will continue through the afternoon and into the evening hours as a shortwave progresses eastward. This wave will provide added forcing and as a result there may be an uptick in coverage later this afternoon into the evening hours. This looks most likely in our southeastern zones but given where the instability is building, anywhere from roughly Olathe to Macon and southward as a chance for strong to marginally severe storms.

Monday, there is potential for severe storms late in the afternoon to evening hours for northwestern MO. The risk then spreads to much of eastern KS and western MO overnight. Late afternoon and into the evening, ensemble guidance shows nearly 2000 J/kg mean SBCAPE building in northwestern MO. Increasing flow aloft will support deep- layer shear near 30kts. Storms are likely to initiate in eastern NE/ western IA along a weak boundary, with activity then building southward to southeastward into NW MO. Strong winds and hail would be the main hazards with this activity. It`s uncertain how this will evolve but the most likely scenario to see storms further south would be for storms to continue southward or southeastward (for storms that develop further northwest). So as the overnight progresses, the main hazard would become strong winds.

With storms already developed in and increasing in coverage in the forecast area, did not get a chance to dive deeper into the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Thicker cloud cover is moving over northeastern KS and west- central to northwestern MO, associated with decaying convection over KS. This should limit the potential for the development of instability and convection to mainly south I-70 through eastern KS and western MO. So have replaced -TSRA with -SHRA for all sites, except IXD. Otherwise, timing of activity still looks most likely from late this afternoon through early this evening. Overnight, low clouds are beginning to look more likely. Have added some MVFR bases with a scattered IFR deck to show that possibility. HREF shows between a 40% and 50% chance of ceilings less than 1000 ft by 11Z with probabilities decreasing 16Z and later.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...CDB

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

WeatherForYou.com, LLC is not responsible for any damages or problems caused by this service. Current weather conditions are obtained from the closest government operated station, a personal station contributing to the PWSweather.com network or from the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS). Some weather information is powered by XWeather. WeatherForYou.com, NOAA, AerisWeather and their data providers disclaim liability of any kind whatsoever, including, without limitation, liability for quality, performance, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose arising out of the use or inability to use the data. Like all things, this site belongs to Jesus Christ ... He just trusts us to maintain it. If you have any questions or comments please use the suggestion box.

Copyright © 1999 - 2025, WeatherForYou.com LLC. All rights reserved.