Pickering, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

122
FXUS63 KEAX 211929
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
229 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong to potentially severe storms possible this afternoon, mainly
  for areas south of an Olathe, KS to Macon, MO line. Winds to
  60 mph and quarter size hail possible in the strongest storms.
- Additional strong to potentially severe storms possible late
  Monday afternoon into the overnight hours.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Thicker higher-level cloud cover, associated with decaying storms
and possibly an MCV in northeastern KS, is spreading across the
northern half of the forecast area. South of this, more robust
instability is building with about 1500 J/kg SBCAPE as of 18-19Z. An
area of low-level convergence south of the area has helped initiate
convection that is now, as of 19Z, moving into southeastern portions
of the forecast. Deep-layer shear remains fairly weak so the overall
severe weather threat is fairly marginal. But some wind gusts to 60
mph and hail to quarter size is possible with the strongest storms.
This trend will continue through the afternoon and into the evening
hours as a shortwave progresses eastward. This wave will provide
added forcing and as a result there may be an uptick in coverage
later this afternoon into the evening hours. This looks most likely
in our southeastern zones but given where the instability is
building, anywhere from roughly Olathe to Macon and southward as a
chance for strong to marginally severe storms.
Monday, there is potential for severe storms late in the afternoon
to evening hours for northwestern MO. The risk then spreads to much
of eastern KS and western MO overnight. Late afternoon and into the
evening, ensemble guidance shows nearly 2000 J/kg mean SBCAPE
building in northwestern MO. Increasing flow aloft will support deep-
layer shear near 30kts. Storms are likely to initiate in eastern NE/
western IA along a weak boundary, with activity then building
southward to southeastward into NW MO. Strong winds and hail would
be the main hazards with this activity. It`s uncertain how this will
evolve but the most likely scenario to see storms further south
would be for storms to continue southward or southeastward (for
storms that develop further northwest). So as the overnight
progresses, the main hazard would become strong winds.
With storms already developed in and increasing in coverage in the
forecast area, did not get a chance to dive deeper into the
extended.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Thicker cloud cover is moving over northeastern KS and west-
central to northwestern MO, associated with decaying convection
over KS. This should limit the potential for the development of
instability and convection to mainly south I-70 through eastern
KS and western MO. So have replaced -TSRA with -SHRA for all
sites, except IXD. Otherwise, timing of activity still looks
most likely from late this afternoon through early this evening.
Overnight, low clouds are beginning to look more likely. Have
added some MVFR bases with a scattered IFR deck to show that
possibility. HREF shows between a 40% and 50% chance of ceilings
less than 1000 ft by 11Z with probabilities decreasing 16Z and
later.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion