Pine Grove, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

604
FXUS62 KJAX 111800
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
A relative `lull` in stronger onshore flow today compared to
recent days between high pressure north of the region and a front
lingering across the southern Florida peninsula. Tonight, the
wavy front lifts northward with a coastal trough developing
offshore of the local Atlantic seaboard as a mid level trough
continues to deepen across the eastern CONUS aloft. This will
increase the low level pressure gradient once again, with
increasingly breezy onshore coastal waters overnight with a
return of coastal showers mainly to northeast Florida counties
after midnight through daybreak Friday where 20-30% rain chances
were advertised from St. Augustine southward toward Welaka. Expect
mainly passing brief showers, but an isolated thunderstorm is
possible near the coast.
Low temperatures will trend warmer tonight with increasing cloud
cover, ranging from the low to mid 60s inland to the lower 70s
toward the Atlantic coast and St. Johns River basin.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
An elongated upper trough will dig south across the eastern
seaboard Friday into Saturday as potent shortwave energy rounds
the base of the trough and across the area on Saturday. At the
surface, high pressure centered over New England extends down the
eastern seaboard maintaining breezy NNE winds and tightening the
local coastal trough. Rounds of coastal showers will shift onshore
in the NE flow mainly for areas south of Jacksonville and into
north-central FL with isolated thunderstorm development during
afternoon peak heating. Low level ridging will bring in drier air
into inland SE GA as afternoon dewpoints fall into the mid/upper
50s in sharp contrast to dewpoints near 70 along the NE FL coast.
Temperatures will be around or just below seasonable with highs in
the low 80s along the coast to the mid-upper 80s inland. A
gradient of low temps will range from low-mid 60s over inland SE
GA/Suwannee river valley to the low 70s at the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
The base of the upper trough becomes a closed upper low along the
SE US coast Sunday into Monday and then develops a surface low
off the Carolinas coast Monday into Tuesday. Uncertainty remains
on the path this low will take whether it lingers off the Carolina
coasts or lifts north up the eastern seaboard through mid-week.
NNE flow continues with the area between high pressure over
eastern US and the developing low off the SE US coast. The pattern
of coastal showers shifting onshore to the NE FL coast and
remaining relatively dry inland continues into early next week. A
cold front approaches the area from the north toward mid-week.
Highs will be in the low 80s at the coast and warm inland to the
mid to upper 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Breezy NE winds 10-13 kts with gusts near 20 kts at the coast will
continue through 21-23z with brief MVFR due to cumulus possible at
CRG and SGJ through 20-22z. VFR prevails inland under diurnal
cumulus and high cirrus. After 00z, NNE winds weaken inland under
passing high cirrus clouds which will keep shallow ground fog
potential very low and advertised only 6SM at VQQ 7-12z for now.
Coastal clouds increase as NE winds increase after 12z with gusts
nearing 20-25 kts by late morning and shower chances increasing at
SGJ with MVFR restriction risk. At this time, indicated PROB30 for
showers at SGJ only.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
High pressure will continue north of the region into the weekend as
a surface trough lingers across the Florida peninsula. Persistent
and strengthening easterly winds are expected over the local waters
through the weekend, with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely
Friday night through Saturday. Shower and isolated thunderstorms
increase over mainly the Florida waters Friday, and continue through
the weekend. Onshore flow persists but begins to weaken early next
week as high pressure settles farther south across the region.
Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents was extended for northeast
Florida beaches through Saturday morning with increasing onshore
flow. A moderate risk continues today for southeast GA beaches
with a high end moderate to possibly high risk by Friday and
certainly through the weekend as winds veer more ENE and winds
strengthen.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Trapped tides and persistent north to northeast flow will continue
elevated tidal levels within the St Johns River and intracoastal
waterways from Mayport south to Flagler Beach through the weekend.
Continue to expect mainly Minor flooding impacts which includes
more nuisance flooding of docks, boat ramps, and over-topping of
some sea walls/bulkheads near high tides, with tidal flooding of
low-lying roads. With the stronger onshore flow this weekend (Sat
into Sun), recent guidance is trending higher with some tidal
flooding impact potential at coastal locations as well which
would lead to beach erosion concerns.
Extended the Coastal Flood Advisory through Saturday morning for
the St. Johns River basin and Intracoastal Waterway for northeast
Florida zones. With stronger northeast winds into the weekend, we
expect tidal flooding impacts will continue for the St. Johns and
ICWW, and will monitor the need to message Minor tidal flooding
impacts late Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  88  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  71  83  71  82 /   0  10  20  20
JAX  69  85  71  84 /   0  10  10  40
SGJ  73  85  73  83 /  10  30  30  60
GNV  67  89  68  87 /   0  10   0  20
OCF  69  88  70  86 /   0  20   0  30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ125-132-
     137-138-225-233-325-333-633.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion