Pineland, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

645
FXUS62 KCHS 080557
AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
157 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will prevail through the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The mid-levels will consist of weak troughing over the Southeast
U.S. At the surface, a cold front will move south of our waters
this morning, then transition into a stationary front this
afternoon, then remain in place through tonight. Meanwhile, High
pressure will be located to our far north, with it`s periphery
extending into our area. This synoptic setup should yield a
tight gradient between dry conditions and rainfall. The NBM
keeps slight chance to chance POPs along our coast this
afternoon, persisting into the evening and overnight. Inland
areas should remain dry. High temperatures will be below normal
due persistent low clouds and gusty northeast winds, especially
along the immediate coast. Highs should range from the upper
70s across our SC counties, to the low/mid 80s across our GA
counties. Lows will range from the lower 60s far inland to near
70 degrees near the beaches.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level troughing will remain across the area into the end
of the week, with surface high pressure wedging extending down
the eastern seaboard through Wednesday. As weak shortwaves move
across the region, global models would suggest we see periodic
chances for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
throughout the day, though the convection-allowing ensembles
(REFS and HREF) would point towards a drier day with most rain
chances staying offshore. NBM has 20 to 50 percent probabilities
for rain throughout the day on Tuesday into Wednesday, though
any rainfall is expected to on the lighter end at under half an
inch.
Aside from rain chances, the high pressure wedge will also keep
winds on the breezier side with gusts into the teens and 20s
throughout the day. Cooler than normal temperatures are also
expected, only reaching up into the upper 70s to lower 80s on
Tuesday and 80s on Wednesday. Temperatures rise further on
Thursday into the mid 80s to upper 80s as the surface high
pressure weakens, with dry conditions expected throughout the
day.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level troughing remains the dominant feature aloft in the
long term, though some weak ridging might start to take place
Sunday/Monday. At the surface, another high pressure wedge looks
to take shape Friday before weakening into the weekend. This
will lead to just below normal temperatures, with little
chances for rain.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06z TAFs: A cold front is moving south through our area. Behind
it, ceilings are dropping to IFR and NE winds are increasing. IFR
should persist through late this morning before gradually improving
to MVFR, then VFR late this afternoon. Though, the timing is
somewhat uncertain. Gusty NE winds are also expected from
around sunrise to sunset.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Mostly VFR in the extended, though
can`t rule out some brief flight restrictions if any
showers/storms form on Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: A cold front will move south of our waters
this morning, then transition into a stationary front this
afternoon, then remain in place through tonight. Meanwhile, High
pressure will be located to our far north, with it`s periphery
extending to our inland areas. This synoptic setup will enhance
the surface pressure gradient, leading to strong and gusty NE
winds. We have Small Craft Advisories in effect for the ocean
waters due to winds and seas, and the Charleston Harbor due to
wind gusts.
Extended Marine: High pressure will dominate at the surface
across the land zones while a stalled frontal boundary is
positioned just to the south of the region. Small Craft
Advisories will be remain in effect for all marine zones,
including the Charleston Harbor, for 25 knot wind gusts and 6 ft
seas (1 to 2 ft waves in the Charleston Harbor). Conditions
across the marine zones will slowly improve on Wednesday as the
high pressure begins to weaken, though end times of the small
craft advisories do vary, all headlines will be expired by
Wednesday evening.
Rip Currents: A combination of gusty northeast winds,
astronomical factors, and increasing swell period will yield a
Moderate Risk of rip currents today and a High Risk on Tuesday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide levels will remain high through the middle of
the week due to the recent full moon and upcoming lunar perigee
(9/10), along with surging northeast winds along the coast
today through midweek resulting in increased tidal departures.
This will result in minor to moderate coastal flooding at the
Charleston tide gage with each tide cycle through Thursday,
though major flooding can`t be ruled out at around a 10% chance.
Minor coastal flooding is possible at the Fort Pulaski tide
gauge beginning Monday evening through the Wednesday morning
high tide, though moderate coastal flooding is also possible at
around a 10% chance.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 9 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ330.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ352-354.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ374.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...APT
LONG TERM...APT
AVIATION...APT
MARINE...APT

NWS CHS Office Area Forecast Discussion