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Plain View, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

336
FXUS61 KAKQ 211407
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1007 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS... Seasonably cool and cloudy conditions today and Monday. A warm up in temperatures from high pressure returns early next week. Unsettled weather returns in the middle to late week.

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1007 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler temperatures in wake of the backdoor cold front today.

- High pressure returns to the area with mostly dry conditions.

High pressure centered across the Northeast extends SW across the forecast area this morning, resulting in ENE winds. A trough off the Carlina coast has developed along the frontal boundary that moved through our forecast area yesterday. The gradient between the high and this feature has tightened, and winds of 10 to 15 mph are being measured across our area, with gusts up to 20 mph along the coast. A weak coastal low pressure is likely to form off the cold front later today well offshore. A few high-res models suggest an isolated shower cannot be ruled out along the coast, so have maintained slight chance PoPs, but confidence in this is low at this time. Temperatures today will be cooler in the upper 70s (slightly cooler along the coast from onshore flow). Tonight, temperatures will drop to near 60F and some patchy fog (locally dense) is possible for most of the area.

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.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler Monday then warmer Tuesday and Wednesday, as high pressure remains in the area.

High pressure will continue in the region for the short term forecast. Temperatures will remain cool on Monday with highs near 80F and lows near 60F, as the airmass brings cooler air from up north. A positively tilted trough sets up across the US from an upper low in the Quebec region. Within this trough, an upper low begins to develop in the central US. In result of the trough, the high pressure over the region will shift to the south of the local area and will funnel moist, warmer air on Tuesday. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid 80s inland and lower 80s near the coast. A cold front will extend from the NE to the central US, but will likely remain to the north of the area on Tuesday. However, there is a slight chance of showers/storms Tuesday afternoon/evening in the piedmont and northern counties. Expect lows Tuesday night in the mid 60s. Wednesday`s temperatures will be similar to Tuesday in the mid 80s for most (lower 80s for the Eastern Shore and northern counties.

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.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled weather and cooler temperatures are likely by the middle and end of the week.

Ridging will build offshore of the SE CONUS coast, while a strong upper low dives into the central Plains. Daily chances for showers/thunderstorms return by the middle of the week due to the approaching upper low and trough, which is expected to advance eastward through the MS Valley during the middle and end of next week as high pressure returns to the Quebec region. This will additionally bring slightly below average temperatures to the region by the end of the week.

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.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 645 AM EDT Sunday...

Degraded flight conditions are possible through early afternoon, although some sites might go to SCT sooner than listed in the TAFs. SCT to BKN MVFR CIGs are currently across the area. It is likely that most major terminals will bounce between SCT and BKN MVFR CIGs this morning into early afternoon. Conditions will improve by the afternoon (14-17z) with VFR conditions returning. CIGs will then return to sub-VFR, likely MVFR to locally IFR, early Monday morning. NE winds will be 5-10 kt throughout the TAF period.

Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions are expected again Sunday night into Monday morning with widespread lowered CIGs and patchy fog. High pressure will then return Monday and Tuesday along with VFR conditions. Unsettled weather is expected late week with possible sub-VFR conditions.

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.MARINE... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- High pressure builds N of the region today into tonight as a trough develops off the North Carolina Coast resulting in a strengthening northeast wind.

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Atlantic coastal waters, mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, and Currituck Sound.

- There is a high rip current risk for today and Monday.

1030mb high pressure is centered over New England early this morning. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front has pushed well S of the Mid-Atlantic coast, with an inverted trough developing off the NC coast. The wind is ENE 15-20kt over the ocean, and 10-15kt elsewhere. Seas range from ~3ft S to ~4ft N, with ~2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The pressure gradient will tighten today into this evening as the inverted trough sharpens offshore and as high pressure builds E toward Atlantic Canada. The wind is expected to become NE 15-20kt with gusts up to 25kt for the Atlantic coastal waters, mouth of the Ches. Bay, and Currituck Sound today into this evening. Elsewhere, the wind is expected to be NE 10-15kt with occasional gusts to ~20kt. Seas build to 4-5ft N to 5-6ft S today into tonight. Waves in the mouth of the Ches. Bay build to 3-4ft today into tonight, and mainly 2-3ft elsewhere in the Ches. Bay. The pressure gradient begins to relax later tonight and especially Monday as high pressure settles S into the region. SCAs will remain in effect for the Currituck Sound through this evening, the mouth of the Ches. Bay through tonight, and the Atlantic coastal waters through Monday as seas will be slow to subside. Local wind probs for sustained 18kt wind and 25kt gusts still drop off quickly W of Little Creek, and have diminished overall, so no expansion of the SCA is needed at this time.

High pressure settles over the Mid-Atlatnic coast Monday through the middle of the week. This will result in largely benign and sub-SCA conditions. However, TS Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane as it curves N and NE to the E of Bermuda. This could result in 3- 4ft seas persisting through midweek. Forecast confidence is rather low by later this week, particularly with respect to how far S a backdoor cold front reaches as another high builds into New England, before lifting back to the N ahead of a cold front approaching from the NW. Regardless, most guidance depicts sub-SCA conditions regardless of the forecast details.

A high rip current risk is forecast for today due to an increasing NE wind and nearshore waves building to 4-6ft. Long period swell (3- 4ft/11-12s) arrives Monday and Tuesday from TS Gabrielle (forecast to be Hurricane Gabrielle by that point). This results in a high rip current risk continuing Monday and Tuesday.

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.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.

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SYNOPSIS...KMC/SW NEAR TERM...KMC/NB SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...AC/KMC AVIATION...KMC MARINE...AJZ

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion

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