Pleasant Lake, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

959
FXUS63 KIWX 071608
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1208 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High temperatures rise from the mid 60s, low 70s today into
  the mid-upper 70s and low-mid 80s into next weekend. Very cold
  tonight, with lows in the upper 30s and low 40s.
- Outside of lake effect rain showers or sprinkles early today,
  expect a dry forecast through the work week.
- There is a moderate swim risk for Lake Michigan beaches along
  the shores of La Porte County, IN and Berrien County, MI.
  Breaking waves and currents are expected. Use caution if
  visiting the beaches.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
The broad upper level trough responsible for the cooler weather this
weekend and showers overnight/this AM will begin to lift out through
the period, giving way to warmer temperatures and dry conditions.
Surface high pressure builds in through the day today, which will
severely limit/preclude the continuance of any lake-enhanced shower
activity and gradually reduce cloud cover. Highs today will be in
the mid-upper 60s, with some locations along/south of US 24 reaching
around 70.
Tonight will be cold as high pressure centers overhead. Winds will
be nearly calm and skies mostly clear-so expect low temperatures to
fall to around 40, with several sites (especially near Hillsdale,
MI) dropping into the upper 30s. BRRR!
The surface high gradually shifts east-northeast through Tuesday
night, but until then we have 850mb temps rising to around 8-13C
with mostly sunny skies. Expect highs in the low 70s Monday, and the
mid-upper 70s by Tuesday.
For Wednesday into Thursday morning a mid-level trough is expected
to drift eastward across the Great Lakes, with some of the guidance
putting out shower activity in our western/central CWA Wed
morning/early afternoon-but most leave us completely dry. I left out
any mention at this point given lower confidence. Thursday into
Friday we remain wedged between the stalled/slowly exiting upper
level trough east of us, and the building ridge extending from the
Desert SW/Texas north and east into the Central/Northern Plains and
Upper Great Lakes. How warm we get depends on how far east/northeast
the ridge reaches and the trough exits. 850mb temps would range from
13-19C (depending on model)through Friday. The current forecast has
highs in the upper 70s, low to mid 80s Wed/Thu, then in the mid-
upper 70s and low 80s Fri.
Saturday we have quite the pattern difference looking at the various
model solutions--so take it with a grain of salt...but a potentially
stronger wave/trough will descend on the Great Lakes and
convection rounds the ridge (now broken down somewhat) into our
area Saturday. It`s possible other solutions verify and
precipitation holds off until Sat Night/Sun. For now, left
chances out given low confidence but have temps in the upper
70s, low 80s Sat/Sun.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
VFR conditions will persist through the period with a dry and
stable air mass well established. Northwest winds near 10 knots
this afternoon become light/calm tonight as sfc high pressure
builds in.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...Steinwedel

NWS IWX Office Area Forecast Discussion