Pointe Aux Pins, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

706
FXUS63 KAPX 221022
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
622 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms today and on Tuesday. A few stronger
  storms not out of the question.
- Fog potential again tonight. Fog could be locally dense in spots
  with significant reductions in visibility.
- Seasonable to seasonably warm temperatures through much of
  this week.
- Recent trends suggest a better chance for showers mid week,
  although uncertainty remains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
Slow meandering upper low/trough (picturesque looking feature on WV
satellite) continues to move eastward with time today and tonight,
from N WI/W UP to near/just north of the eastern UP. There could be
an embedded perturbation or two (perhaps of convectively agitated
origin) on the southern periphery of the western flow which could
aid shower and storm development later today and into portions of
the overnight. Weak stationary boundary also remains draped
across northern lower due to the very minimal meridional
movement of upper level features across the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes region through the daytime hours.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
Thunderstorm potential: Showers and thunderstorms remain possible on
Monday, especially during the afternoon as daytime heating is
maximized. Couple of triggers that may allow for scattered
thunderstorms during the day, one being the lake breeze across
northeast lower, another the breaching of convective temperatures
assuming daytime heating is able to maximize (although going back
and looking at the latest 00Z point soundings does show subtle warm
air just above the boundary layer which could stifle some
development), and any subsequent outflow/differential heating
boundaries. Additionally, few pieces of guidance (RAP/HRRR for ex)
are also trying to hint at a convectively charged feature (from the
current convection across MN) on the southern periphery of the
trough center moving west to east across northern lower Michigan
during peak heating. This scenario would result in quite a bit of
thunderstorm coverage across northern lower, but could in theory
materialize slower/less impactful given the sensitivity of these
features.
Instability pushing ~1000+/- j/kg and modest mid level
southwesterlies will support a threat for a couple of stronger
storms, think especially along the lake breeze. Locally heavy rain
and gusty/damaging winds will be the primary concern with the
strongest storms, although some hail will also be possible given the
instability materializes as forecast in combination with the modest
bulk shear (25-30 kts) and increasing winds above 6km. If there is a
little "cap", then perhaps a good chunk of real/robust convection
struggles, and much of the gibberish above was for naught.
Conceptually think there is a good chance for at least lake breeze
convection during the afternoon and at least isolated coverage
elsewhere. Showers/rumble of thunder to remain into portions of the
overnight, esp early and close to the upper low center.
Fog development:
Recent rains, a relatively cool night, and light winds suggest
an environment conducive for fog development late tonight.
Despite the fact that there will likely be clouds and at least
some precip chances lingering, it will still likely be cool and
moist enough for fog development. Certainly is supported when
looking at the HREF/NBM statistical/probability guidance, in
addition to deterministic HRRR visibility, which suggests the
potential for areas of significant visibility reduction.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Day 2 (Tuesday):
Not really a tremendous difference on Tuesday in regards to the
upper pattern and expected weather. Upper low to the north across
the E UP begins to drift a tad bit south/southwest to some extent.
Environment remains characterized by ~1000 j/kg of CAPE and
similarly modest shear and thus the chance for showers and
thunderstorms will remain on Tuesday. Shower and storm coverage may
be perturbed a little to the south comparatively, but again a
stronger storm or two would be possible given the environment.
Days 3-7 (Wednesday - Sunday):
Although details still a little fuzzy, perhaps garnering a
little better picture on the pattern for mid to late week,
albeit plenty of uncertainty remains. On Wednesday,
aforementioned upper low across the E UP begins to retrograde to
the southwest over N MI/Lake MI. At the same time, upper low
and embedded short waves across the center/southeastern portions
of the country will begin to interact with the Lake MI upper
low. Potent short wave will lift northward around the
circulation of the Lake MI upper low, with a moisture filled low
pressure system producing a swath of precipitation. Latest
culmination of guidance vary but several pieces of guidance
keep the main precipitation swath to the east of N MI for the
most part. That being said, the upper low slowly drifting to the
south does keep shower chances into mid week (~Wed-Thurs).
There is still plenty of uncertainty with this pattern, as is
the case usually with upper low interactions and potential
phasing. There has definitely been a trend northward within the
ENS over the last several runs though, with a little wiggle in
the ENS sfc low pressure centers to the east this evening, and
worth monitoring closely in the coming days. Either way,
temperatures do look to remain near to slightly above normal for
late September.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Mixture of MVFR to LIFR producing fog/mist and stratus expected
to gradually mix out after sunrise this morning, with most
locations likely trending to VFR conditions during the
afternoon. Likely to see some scattered showers with a few
embedded thunderstorms impact the taf locations today into this
evening...although uncertainty is still significant with regards
to overall shower/storm coverage and exact timing. Another round
of MVFR to IFR fog/mist and stratus appears likely to develop
again this evening. Light winds through the period...with
perhaps some brief gusty winds with any thunderstorms.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MSB

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion