Pomerene, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

522
FXUS65 KTWC 061114
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
218 AM MST Sat Sep 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...With considerable moisture in place, expect scattered
showers and thunderstorms today. The main threat from these storms
will be areas of locally heavy rain producing isolated flash
flooding. Below normal temperatures this weekend. Drying trend
commences Sunday with only slight chances of precipitation, then dry
early next week. Some moisture mid to late week will result in
slight chances for showers and thunderstorms mid to late week. Most
of the week will have near normal temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Latest KEMX radar imagery shows a few residual showers
with brief downpours continuing but those will continue to diminish
over the next couple of hours. Still plenty of moisture in place
today, which combined with more sunshine/instability and perhaps a
couple of ill-defined disturbances within the weak 700-500 mb
troughiness across the region will result in an uptick in coverage
of showers and thunderstorms today compared to yesterday. Any
showers and thunderstorms that develop will be slow moving, capable
of locally heavy downpours and isolated flash flooding. The HREF and
UofA WRF guidance is tending to focus the highest thunderstorm
chances both across the higher terrain and also for locales south of
Tucson, centered over Santa Cruz/South Central Pima County and this
seems reasonable. High temperatures will be about 5 to 8 degrees
below normal today.
A gradual drying trend will commence Sunday, especially aloft as
ridging also builds in. As lower level moisture will take a bit more
time to mix out, just enough recycled moisture available that we
haven`t completely removed PoPs Sunday. Any showers (with limited
thunderstorms) will be quite isolated. Most locales will stay dry
Sunday. Temperatures Sunday will warm to within a few degrees of
normal.
Ridging aloft will prevail Monday with dry conditions area-wide as
high temperatures warm back up to seasonable levels. Thereafter, as
southwesterly flow moves in ahead of longwave troughiness that moves
from the west coast Tue-Wed into the Great Basin Thu-Fri. While
moisture levels wane early in the week, deeper moisture is still
available to our south and will partially advect northward by mid to
late week such that we have reintroduced 10-30 pct PoPs starting
Wednesday mainly from Tucson eastward. Temperatures will hover near
normal levels much of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 07/12Z. SCT-BKN 6k-10k ft AGL, briefly
lowering to around 4k ft AGL for KOLS/KDUG. ISOLD to SCT SHRA/TSRA
early this morning will diminish by 06/10Z, then redevelop again
between 06/18Z and 07/06Z. Expect wind gusts up to 40 kts with the
strongest storms. Surface winds less than 10 kts and variable
outside any thunderstorm activity. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Minimum relative humidities 25 to 40 percent through
the weekend, lowering to 15 to 30 percent much of next week.
Scattered showers and thunderstorm chances today, then drier air
Sunday with just enough moisture for a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Dry conditions prevail Monday and Tuesday, with
slight chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly east of Tucson
mid to late week as some moisture returns. Surface winds mainly
light through the forecast period, except gusty and erratic in or
near any thunderstorms. High temperatures will be below normal this
weekend  then warming back to seasonable levels for most of the
week.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion