Powhatan, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

083
FXUS61 KRLX 250312
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1112 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Daily opportunities for showers and thunderstorms continues
into the weekend as multiple disturbances affect the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1050 PM Wednesday...
The next wave of scattered to numerous showers and embedded
thunderstorms is beginning to approach and move into the far
western CWA as the surface low, currently near Paducah, KY,
approaches from the southwest. This trend will continue
overnight, with the axis of heaviest rain expected to be across
NE KY, SE OH, and the northern lowlands, with 00Z guidance
having trended slightly northwest with the aforementioned axis
compared to earlier. Moderate to heavy rain at times is
expected, leading to the continued potential for high water
issues, primarily given any training of heavier showers or
storms, especially across recently compromised soils. While
considered, have opted against a Flood Watch given recent trends
in guidance and uncertainty in placement of the heaviest axis
of rainfall. Otherwise, lows across the CWA will range from the
upper 50s to mid 60s, with some patchy fog possible given any
brief breaks in cloud cover. The rest of the forecast remains
on track.
As of 600 PM Wednesday...
Scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder continue across
NE KY, SE OH, and the northern WV lowlands in the vicinity of an
area of weak low-level convergence and modest instability that
developed this afternoon given mostly cloudy skies, all amid
broad scale southwesterly flow, funneling in ample moisture
from well to the southwest. Given PWAT values of 1.6 to 1.8 and
mean steering flow of ~15-20kts, locally heavy rain of up to
1-1.5"/hr has been falling in a few locations, leading to the
potential for isolated high water issues in a few spots,
primarily across the Huntington area thus far. Given further
activity developing off to the southwest and mean upper level
flow near parallel to the forcing axis, the potential for
training of showers/storms exists overnight, leading to
additional heavy rain and hydro concerns overnight into Thursday
morning. Have updated PoPs into early tonight to correlate
better with current radar trends, and have also added a heavy
rain mention into the forecast through the overnight. The rest
of the forecast remains on track.
As of 1245 PM Wednesday...
Gloomy weather prompted by surface low pressure and its attendant
frontal boundary will prevail through the forecast period. The
area will remain entrenched beneath overcast skies embedded with
passing showers and the occasional rumble of thunder. At the
time of writing, rain was streaming from southwest to northeast
both along the Ohio River Valley and the spine of the
Appalachians, with no indications of lightning. Deep
southwesterly flow sponsored by this weather feature will
continue to encourage periods of moderate to heavy rain
overnight into Thursday. The surface front will be oriented
through the heart of Ohio during much of the period, but will
begin to drift eastward late Thursday evening and into the
beginning of the short term forecast period.
Mesoanalysis depicts some amounts of instability and shear are
present over the area this afternoon, but not quite enough to
muster much in the way of strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms. SPC has slashed any concern for severe with
today`s forecast, bringing us back down to a general
thunderstorm risk for both today and Thursday.
Attention will then be more upon hydro concerns as we progress
through the near term period. Very dry antecedent soil
conditions ahead of this event has helped to soak up this
steady and beneficial rainfall so far today, with flash flood
guidance not exceeded thus far. Continuous rounds of rain
tonight into Thursday may foster some local ponding and trouble
spots, but widespread flooding potential remains low in this
event. This rainfall will hopefully slash away at the ongoing
drought here in the forecast area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Wednesday...
A cold front will make eastward progress through the forecast
area overnight Thursday into Friday morning, bringing rain
chances to a gradual end. However, enough lingering moisture
along the higher terrain may spur isolated showers and a rumble
of thunder during peaking heating hours Friday afternoon.
What was once looking like a dry weekend has steered towards a
more active state as the base of an upper level trough festers
over the heart of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Global models
are on board of this trough closing off into a cut out low in
close quarters to the forecast area. This feature will spawn
showers and storms for most locations east of the Ohio River on
Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Wednesday...
The cut off low/upper level trough feature first mentioned in
the short term period will continue to reside over the forecast
area for the end of the weekend. This feature remains in
somewhat of a holding pattern in response to tropical activity
churning over the Atlantic that is slated to meander close to
the eastern seaboard for the remainder of the valid forecast
period. As a result, daily opportunities for diurnally driven
activity looks plausible for the mountains and central lowlands
from Sunday onward. Surface high pressure parked to the west of
the area will attempt to counteract shower and storm
development, but opted to maintain low end chance POPs suggested
by central guidance for each day in the long term period.
Temperatures will slightly rebound late in the weekend into the
start of next week in the midst of the upper level blocking
pattern. Afternoon highs will range in the mid 60s to 70s along
our mountain zones and cresting above the 80 degree marker
across the lower elevations.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 845 PM Wednesday...
Mainly VFR conditions at present will gradually deteriorate
overnight courtesy of lowering CIGs and scattered to numerous
showers moving in from the west, with widespread MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CIGs by dawn, along with MVFR/IFR VSBY with mainly showers and
perhaps spotty fog. A few isolated thunderstorms remain possible
as well. This wave of rain will continue to shift northeast
throughout Thursday morning into the early afternoon, with
somewhat drier conditions thereafter, with ISO/SCT activity
remaining possible in/near the mountains. Flight conditions will
gradually improve to MVFR/VFR by late afternoon and early
evening.
Light southerly flow is expected tonight, with flow gradually
veering to WNW by late in the TAF period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of rainfall and associated
restrictions will likely vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE                                                            THU 09/25/25
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    L    M    M    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    H    L    L    H    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    L    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR is possible at night with low stratus and/or fog through the
weekend.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK/GW
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...GW

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion