Progress Village, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

355
FXUS62 KTBW 260449
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1249 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
An U/L trough will move over the southeast U.S. today with a
closed low developing which will become cut-off from the large
scale U/L flow across the CONUS. An associated frontal boundary
will approach north Florida with scattered to numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms developing over the nature coast.
Combination of onshore boundary layer flow and daytime heating
will also generate scattered thunderstorms over the interior this
afternoon. Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above
climatic normals.
The frontal boundary will sink slowly southeast Friday night and
Saturday with scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms across region...with highest pops north and central.
The frontal boundary will gradually dissipate tonight and Sunday.
The U/L pattern will become more complex Sunday and Monday as a
weak rex block develops over the eastern U.S.  A potential
tropical system, which is currently invest AL94, is expected to
move over/or just east of the Bahamas and track north northwest
basically parallel to the east coast of the Florida peninsula.
Although satellite imagery may begin to look a bit unnerving
during this time period, the system is expected to remain well
east of the forecast area. The rex block will play a key role in
steering this system...and possibly absorbing it early next week
up towards the Carolinas.
As the tropical system continues offshore the northeast Florida
coast early next week moving away from the region, this will aid
in pulling down dry air behind the system across west central and
southwest Florida which will significantly reduce pops and allow
temperatures to drop down to near climatic normals. Boundary layer
flow will also become onshore through mid week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
VFR conditions expected through the morning hours under mostly
clear skies. Daytime heating will allow SCT LCL BKN030-040 to
develop, with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms
creating LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs, with the best chance over
the northern terminals of TPA/PIE/SRQ.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
A frontal boundary will approach the northern waters today with an
increasing chance of showers/thunderstorms across the northern
waters, spreading over the central waters tonight and Saturday.
High pressure will build back over the waters on Sunday and into
early next week with low pops each day. Gradient will remain
rather weak through the period with winds and seas below
cautionary levels.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1203 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
No fire weather hazards are expected through early next week as
sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity
values well above critical levels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  77  89  76 /  30  30  60  20
FMY  91  76  91  75 /  20  10  40  20
GIF  93  75  92  74 /  40  20  60  20
SRQ  89  76  88  74 /  20  30  50  20
BKV  90  71  88  69 /  40  40  60  20
SPG  88  77  87  76 /  30  40  50  20
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Shiveley

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion