Prowers, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

166
FXUS65 KPUB 280506
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1106 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms expected across the higher terrain
  this weekend through Monday morning, with the best chances
  along the Continental Divide on Sunday.
- Drier conditions towards the middle of next week, with hints
  of another active period by next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Rest of Today and Tonight...
As the broad upper low continues pushing into the Four Corners
Region, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will linger over
the southern half of our CWA. Any lingering convection over the
eastern plains will quickly dissipate this evening, with
precipitation lingering overnight across the western mountains. A
few of the CAMs also show isolated showers over the Pikes Peak
Region prior to midnight, but chances are not especially high, and
if showers do linger they would be on the weaker side.
Generally mild conditions overnight, with lows in the 40s-50s over
most of the area, with some showers continuing over the San Juans
and southern Sangres.
Sunday...
Models have the upper low weakening a bit on Sunday, with the
broader upper trough pushing more into the Four Corners. Lingering
showers over the mountains will spread across the rest of the higher
terrain and mountain valleys throughout the day. Showers and
thunderstorms will be widespread, with the most likely impacts being
locally heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty outflow winds. Best
coverage for precipitation will be over the San Juans and southern
Sangres, though some weak showers may make it as far east the
southern I-25 corridor. High temperatures will be similar to today,
if a few degrees cooler. The eastern plains will see mid 70s-80s,
while the high valleys remain in the mid-high 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Sunday night through Monday...Upper low system continues to weaken
and eject to the northeast Sunday evening and through the day
Monday, producing chances for convection across all of the higher
terrain and I-25 Corridor into Monday afternoon. The upper wave
starts to ext the area Monday evening, and activity should come to
an end by midnight if not sooner. Monday is expected to be the
coolest day of the extended period, with highs in the 60s for the
high valleys, and lower 70s to lower 80s for the plains.
Tuesday through Thursday...Better agreement amongst the long range
models on what happens through the upcoming week. A quick-moving
upper wave glances by to the north-northwest on Tue, just producing
some isolated convection across the higher terrain. Upper level
ridging builds in for Wed and Thu, producing dry conditions and
continued seasonable temperatures. Plan on highs each day in the
upper 60s to mid 70s for the high valleys, and mid 70s to mid 80s
for the plains.
Friday...Another pacific low pressure system approaches for the end
of the week, bringing isolated convection to the higher terrain
through the day, then across the entire forecast area through the
night. At this time the extended procedure is keeping normal
temperatures in place, but the increasing southwest flow aloft will
likely help bump temps across the plains to above normal levels.
Moore
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
At KCOS, VFR the next 24 hrs. On Sunday, models keep convection
generally south and west of the terminal through the day, so
won`t include any vcsh/vcts this forecast cycle, though there
will be at least a low risk of gusty outflow winds (s-se 30 kts)
from distant storms, especially after 22z. Prevailing winds will
be variable overnight into Sunday morning, then take on a more
sly direction once mixing deepens around 18z, with some gusts
over 20 kts possible. Slowly diminishing winds after 02z Sun
evening.
At KPUB, VFR the next 24 hrs. Models develop some convection
s-se of the terminal starting 21z Sunday, and will carry a vcsh
from 22z til 02z as showers/isolated -tsra move through the
general area. Main impact of convection will be an increased
risk of gusty outflow winds (s-se 35 kts), especially after
22z. Prevailing winds will be variable/light drainage
overnight, before taking on a more sly component Sun once
mixing deepens around 18z, with some gusts over 20 kts possible,
especially after 21z. Slowly diminishing winds after 02z Sun
evening.
At KALS, VFR the next 24 hrs, with a renewed chance for convection
Sun after 18z, and will include a prob30 for -tsra in the taf
for the afternoon. Vcsh lingers into the evening, gradually
ending toward 06z. South winds will become light/variable
overnight, before redeveloping late morning Sun with deeper
mixing.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion