Queen Anne, Maryland Weather Forecast Discussion

631
FXUS61 KPHI 091718
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
118 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure becomes more centered across New England today before
shifting eastward tonight and Wednesday. An area low pressure off
the Southeast U.S. coast tracks north and northeastward today
through Wednesday. A front may develop across portions of our area
Sunday and Monday, with an area of low pressure located off the
Southeast U.S coast.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Tranquil conditions continue through the daytime hours today before
a weak low developing offshore returns the potential for rain to the
area tonight.
Clouds will continue to increase with the northeast flow across
the area through today. Still, temperatures will warm up nicely
as we go through the day. Temperatures mainly in the mid 70s
are expected, though along the coasts of NJ/DE, increasing
clouds associated with the developing low may keep highs closer
to 70. Conditions will be breezy once again with excellent
mixing down of winds from above the PBL as well as a tightening
pressure gradient. Sustained winds around 10-15 mph are expected
with gusts of 20-25 mph, particularly along the coast. Mainly
dry conditions are expected though a stray shower later this
afternoon along the coast as the low creeps closer, can`t be
completely ruled out.
By this evening, the high pressure departs off to the east over the
Canadian Maritimes, and the developing low slides north towards our
area. As a result, there is a chance (30-40%) for showers tonight
from the coast inland through much of the coastal plains with a
slight chance (15-25%) further inland near the I-95 corridor. Model
guidance continues to indicate that additional shower activity
further inland can`t be completely ruled out but the most
concentrated showers look to remain where the highest chances are
placed. Winds tonight remain gusty near the coast with the tightening
pressure gradient. Otherwise, lows look to be mainly in the 50s as
increased cloud cover spreads through the whole region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure off the Carolina coast will move north to eventually
northeast during Wednesday, however remaining well offshore of our
coasts. As low-level moisture continues to increase into Wednesday
on the northwest side of the surface low, some showers and sprinkles
are expected on Wednesday. The placement of this varies in the
guidance, however chances look to be the highest east of the I-95
corridor. Some low-level convergence may assist in shower
organization along the coast during the morning, and some terrain
assistance may lead to some uptick in showers across the northern
areas. The overall coverage and timing of showers though is of lower
confidence. The tightened pressure gradient to the north and
northwest side of the surface low will gradually relax by later
Wednesday, therefore a gusty (to around 30 mph) northeasterly breeze
will diminish with time (with this occurring last along the coast).
The northeast wind along with more cloud cover will keep
temperatures below average Wednesday, with highs in the upper 60s to
low 70s.
As we go through Thursday, surface low pressure will be long gone
and drier air will return and this will result in more sunshine. Due
to more sunshine and the wind more northerly (much less),
temperatures turn milder with highs near 80 degrees for much of the
region.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Summary...Temperatures around average with mostly dry conditions.
Synoptic Overview...An upper-level trough axis is forecast to swing
into the East Friday into Saturday, however some guidance has become
stronger with this and therefore closing it off at 500 mb to our
south for a time. It may then weaken as it lifts northward Sunday
into Monday. Meanwhile, a potential closed low drops southward from
Hudson Bay Canada Friday and over the weekend before settling across
the Great Lakes region into Monday. This may be the cause of the
weakening trough over us to lift northward and weaken even more. At
the surface, high pressure remains extended into our area from the
northeast although it weakens with time. A front may develop into a
portion of our area during the second half of the weekend. Low
pressure off the Southeast U.S. coast tracks northeastward Sunday
and Monday, while another low may slide into the upper Ohio Valley.
For Friday and Saturday...An upper-level trough is forecast to be
across much of eastern Canada with a strong shortwave diving
southward from near Hudson Bay. A separate upper-level trough is
forecast to be crossing the East, however it may gradually weaken
with time. The deterministic guidance as well as the ensembles
differ with the placement of the Canadian upper-level trough and the
East Coast trough. This may not have much of an impact on our
sensible weather as the model consensus still shows surface high
pressure centered from northern New England toward the Canadian
Maritimes, but also extended southwestward across our area. Daytime
temperatures may end up being a little bit above average for much of
the area Friday, then perhaps a touch cooler on Saturday.
For Sunday and Monday...The evolution of the Canadian upper-level
trough will determine our sensible weather. Some guidance is farther
south and west with this feature, while some others sharpen the
trough mostly across New England. This may result in the development
of a surface front across portions of our area and weak low pressure
off the Southeast U.S. coast. Given the uncertainty especially at
this time range and also factoring in the model differences, did not
make any deviations from the NBM output. This shows some slight
chance PoPs (20 percent) for parts of the area starting Sunday
night. Temperatures at this time look to be close to average.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Today...VFR with increasing clouds, especially KMIV/KACY. NE to
ENE winds increasing to 10-15 knots with some gusts to 20
knots. High confidence.
Tonight...Clouds continue to increase with sub-VFR conditions likely
(70%) to develop for South Jersey and I-95 terminals. Mainly MVFR
conditions expected but a chance (30%) for IFR conditions at
KACY/KMIV with rain showers. Mainly VFR conditions expected at
KRDG/KABE. NNE winds around 10 knots, gusts up to 20 knots remain
possible at KMIV/KACY. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Wednesday...Sub-VFR ceilings probable from about the I-95 terminals
to the south and east due to low clouds. Some showers and/or
sprinkles are possible as well. Ceilings improve to VFR late in the
day or at night along with the cloud cover decreasing from west to
east. Northeast to north winds less than 10 knots at KABE/KRDG and
10-15 knots and gusty elsewhere, diminishing late in the afternoon
and through the evening.
Thursday and Saturday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect due to winds and waves.
Northeast winds of 20-25 kts with gusts up to 30 kts, along
with seas building to 5-7 feet will continue through tonight.
Outlook...
Wednesday...Northeasterly wind gusts 25-30 knots along with seas 4-7
feet are expected to gradually subside by later in the day and at
night. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the ocean zones.
Thursday through Saturday...The conditions are anticipated to be
below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Rip Currents...
For today, northeast winds increasing to 15-25 mph with gusts to
around 30 mph. This will result in breaking waves in the surf zone
building to 4-7 feet. There will be a southeasterly swell with a 6-7
second period, and we are within two days of Sunday`s Full Moon. As
a result, a HIGH risk for the development of dangerous rip currents
continues at all beaches.
For Wednesday, north-northeast winds 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph
will diminish some by later in the afternoon. Breaking waves in the
surf zone should be a little less at 3-5 feet as wave heights slowly
subside. A southeasterly swell with a 7-8 second period in place,
and given the lingering choppy conditions opted to continue with a
HIGH risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at all
beaches.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A northeasterly wind will continue through Wednesday, and even
increase during today into Wednesday. Despite being two days
after the Full Moon, astronomical tides are still high enough
and with water pushing into the coast, the potential for minor
coastal flooding will increase at most of our tidal gauges. The
greatest potential for minor coastal flooding looks to be with
the high tide cycles mostly later this evening and continuing
with the high tide cycles on Wednesday. Therefore, we have
issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for the coastal sites along the
Ocean as well as Delaware Bay for this evening through
Wednesday. The tidal Delaware River as well the extreme upper
part of Delaware Bay may also need a Coastal Flood Advisory as
well for the high tide overnight tonight into Wednesday.
Minor coastal flooding may continue into Wednesday night into
Thursday.
No tidal flooding is expected along the northeast coast of
Chesapeake Bay.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 3 PM EDT
     Wednesday for NJZ012>014-020>027.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for NJZ014-
     024>026.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 3 PM EDT
     Wednesday for DEZ002>004.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-
     431.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Wednesday night for
     ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Gorse
NEAR TERM...AKL/Robertson
SHORT TERM...Gorse
LONG TERM...Gorse
AVIATION...AKL/Gorse/Robertson
MARINE...AKL/Gorse/RCM/Robertson
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion