Ragland, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

747
FXUS64 KBMX 011824
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1255 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1250 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2025
- No hazardous weather impacts are anticipated the next seven
   days. However, drought conditions are most likely going to
   increase across the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2025
Look for only minimal isolated shower activity (with a low chance
of thunder) this afternoon and evening in the WRN counties with
weak troughing. Otherwise, the remainder of the short term looks
to be dry. The sky should clear out tonight as the trough nudges
WWD. A tad cooler air influx from the NE/E should allow for low
temps 4-8 degrees lower tonight across much of C AL and highs a
few degrees lower in the E for Thu.
08
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2025
No major changes were made in the extended forecast with a low to
moderate chance of diurnal showers and tstorms starting Sun
afternoon with overall moisture increasing. Highs will have a E-W
gradient with mid-upper 70s E to mid 80s W. This is near normal
to slightly above normal highs for C AL for early Oct. Lows
moderate some as we progress through the extended.
08
Previous long-term discussion:
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025
The high will continue over the state Friday and Saturday,
keeping dry weather and cooler temperatures each day. Winds will
remain out of the east and northeast, breezy each day. By Sunday,
a trough approaches the southeast US, with the high weakening and
moving east. With flow around the high, this puts central Alabama
with southeasterly to easterly flow that transitions to have a
southerly component by the beginning of the workweek. Moisture
will advect into the state with a low to moderate chance for
diurnal convection Sunday through Tuesday. There is some
uncertainty as to how much moisture will return and how quickly,
but there is general consensus for now that there will be at least
scattered convection, higher coverage in the southeast closer to
the moisture advection.
With dry conditions for several days, drought could easily become
worse in many areas. High temperatures will hover in the 80s
through the extended, with the coolest lows expected Friday night,
with values as low as the upper 50s.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2025
A VFR forecast is expected for the next 24 hours. There will be a
few SHRAs in the W this afternoon that may scrap TCL. I have a
VCSH mention to account for this through 00z. Otherwise, E-SE
winds 6-9kts during this afternoon with mixing may occur. On Thu
morning, winds may be a tad higher, 7-13kts before the end of the
forecast, generally ERLY.
Note: Will have AMD NOT SKED at TCL while comms issues persist.
08
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The area should remain mostly dry, except for a few isolated
showers and storms in the west portions of Central Alabama
through early evening, with minRH values falling into the low to
mid 30s for many areas this afternoon through Friday. Given the
sharp east shift in the tropical trends, no significant moisture
return is expected until late weekend and into early next week
with low rain chances by Sunday afternoon. Because of this,
drought conditions will remain ongoing, with additional expansion
possible given the lack of rain.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     86  59  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    85  60  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  87  64  84  58 /  10  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  87  62  88  58 /  20  20   0   0
Calera      88  62  86  57 /  10  10   0   0
Auburn      85  62  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  87  63  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        85  62  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08/24
AVIATION...08

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion