Raisin, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

061
FXUS64 KCRP 061759
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1259 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1237 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of Flash Flooding Sunday and Sunday
  night
- Moderate (40-60%) chance for showers/storms today and a moderate
  to high (60-80%) chance Sunday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Not much change to this forecast package other than minor tweaks to
QPF/PoPs. Latest CAM guidance as of the 09/06/2025 12Z run shows
most convection today and again early tomorrow morning along the
Coastal Bend/barrier islands and over the waters. Tonight,
rain/storm chances increase beginning across northwestern portions
of our CWA and spreads over the waters as a frontal boundary
approaches from the north. The latest 12Z runs of the NAM/GFS shows
the weak boundary sliding across South Texas overnight into early
Sunday morning before stalling across the region. Rain chances
continue as remnants of the boundary linger into the first part of
next week. Combined with moisture convergence along the boundary,
a deep moisture plume thanks to Pacific moisture from Lorena may
contribute to heavy rainfall at times with above normal PWATs.
Therefore, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted Sunday
and Sunday night under a Marginal Risk of Flash Flooding (level 1
of 4) with a 5-14% chance of isolated flash flooding. Generally,
expecting a widespread 0.50-1.00 inch of rain across the CWA with
isolated pockets of 2-4 inches possible this weekend into Monday.
Moderate rain chances taper off to a low (20-30%) chance by
around Wednesday. The remainder of the week is more uncertain and
PoPs may be overdone a bit but opted to stick with the NBM until
we have a better idea how the remnants of the boundary will affect
the region for the rest of the forecast period.
Highs today will be in the low 90s along the coast to near 100
out west. Starting Sunday, highs dip to the mid 80s to mid 90s as
we start out a new week then gradually trend warmer through the
work week as the mid- to upper levels of the atmosphere dry out
and promote warm air advection.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Have prevailing VFR conditions in the TAFs although MVFR
CIGs/VSBYs may occur at times as isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms are forecast throughout the TAF period. A
frontal boundary over Central Texas is expected to slide southward
today and stall across South Texas this weekend. Heavy rainfall
is possible but will be isolated. Expecting convection this
afternoon/evening and again overnight/early morning but have
included PROB30s due to uncertainty.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
A gentle to moderate onshore breeze (BF 3-4) is expected to back
east/northeast as a frontal boundary stalls across the region this
weekend through next week. Moderate to high rain chances are
forecast over the coastal waters today through Monday, before
dropping to moderate to low chances (50% or less) through the
remainder of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  91  76  90 /  60  70  70  60
Victoria          73  91  71  92 /  40  70  30  30
Laredo            77  93  75  94 /  60  70  60  50
Alice             74  92  73  92 /  60  70  50  50
Rockport          77  90  76  90 /  60  70  70  50
Cotulla           75  90  74  94 /  50  70  30  40
Kingsville        76  91  74  91 /  60  70  60  60
Navy Corpus       80  88  79  87 /  70  80  80  70
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BF/80
AVIATION...BF/80

NWS CRP Office Area Forecast Discussion