Ramsay, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

798
FXUS63 KMQT 282322
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
722 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A mostly dry and low impact weather pattern with near to above
  average temperatures holds into next week.
- Limited to elevated fire weather potential exists this
  afternoon/evening and again tomorrow as RHs fall 25-35%.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Afternoon RAP analysis and GOES satellite imagery reveal barely a
cloud across the entire central CONUS underneath a very dry ridge.
Closer to home, efficient mixing has dropped RHs between 25-45%
across da Yoop. As we get into the peak of the afternoon, would not
be surprised to see RHs bottom out between 20-30% as temps push into
the mid to upper 70s. Despite the dry conditions, fire weather
concerns will remain fairly limited as winds will stay on the lighter
side, though some breezy S to SW winds 15-20 kts may be realized
this afternoon. Tonight, clear skies will enable efficient
radiational cooling as interior low temps reach 40F, elsewhere up to
50. More of the same is expected tomorrow (Monday) with daytime
temps reaching the upper 70s to low 80s as the ridge axis shifts
overhead. Once again, deep mixing into a very dry boundary layer may
bring down afternoon RHs between 25-35%. Lighter winds curtail any
serious fire weather concerns. A strong sfc high pressure moving
through Ontario towards James Bay brings a backdoor cold front late
Monday into Tuesday. No precip is expected given the dry conditions
in place. Breezy E to NE flow behind the front will keep Tuesday in
the low to mid 70s.
Upper level ridging persists through much of the
midweek, keeping above normal temps and little to no precip chances
in the forecast until this coming weekend. Deterministic models
begin to breakdown the stout central US ridge Fri/Sat, sending in
embedded shortwaves and reintroducing precipitation chances. Opting
to maintain NBM PoPs at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 721 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR conditions continue as high pressure ridging persists over the
region. No fog is expected tonight, but we could flirt with marginal
LLWS criteria/low-level turbulence late. Expect generally light SW
flow throughout the period, turning more to the NE late Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Breezy S to SW winds 15-25 kts expected this afternoon mainly across
the western arm of Lake Superior where a brief tightening of the
surface pressure gradient exists between a sfc high sagging into the
lower lakes and a weak developing low in the N Plains. While light
winds of 20 knots or less are expected Monday, with sfc troughing
setting up over the Northern Plains from Tuesday onwards, expect
east to southeasterly winds of 20 to 25 knots to develop over the
lake Tuesday and Wednesday, eventually becoming southerly on
Thursday.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...BW

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion