Rayburn, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

375
FXUS64 KHGX 171836
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
136 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
- Weather remains mostly status quo for the next several days with
  slightly above normal temperatures and some isolated to widely
  scattered, mainly daytime, showers and storms.
- Monday night or Tuesday looks to be the next best chance of
  some widespread meaningful rainfall.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Though we`ll have some low-mid level ridging in the vicinity in
the region for the next several days, it probably won`t be enough
to completely suppress some isolated to widely scattered shower
and tstm development in the afternoon to early evening hours.
As the surface high across the northern Gulf coast moves a bit
further eastward late in the weekend and early next week, we`ll
see a more prevailing sse wind off the Gulf set up. This will
drive PW`s up from their current values around 1.5" closer to the
2" mark. Further aloft, we should see the flow amplify with
western ridging expanding north, followed by a deepening
central/eastern CONUS trof.
Deterministic guidance is mostly on the same page showing a
shortwave embedded in the NNW flow aloft diving into the region
either Monday night or Tuesday which should bring us our next
decent shot of more widespread shra/tstm activity. Mainly went the
blended route in regards to POPs for now, but would anticipate
that they`ll go up in one of those two time periods if/when we
get some continued model consistency and are able to better pin
down timing. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
VFR conditions prevail throughout most of the TAF period. Expect
generally light winds, mostly east to southeasterly this
afternoon. Chances for afternoon shower/thunderstorms are greater
than that of yesterday, with isolated storms most likely to occur
along the sea breeze near the Houston Metro area. Remaining
showers taper off in the evening with light variable winds
prevailing overnight. Brief, isolated fog will be possible again
Thursday morning.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds and 2 to 4
foot seas should continue over the next several days along with a
daily risk of isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms. As surface high pressure moves a bit further east,
a more prevalent and slightly increased southeast wind will set up
later in the weekend into early next week.  47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  71  93  70  93 /  10  20  10  10
Houston (IAH)  74  92  73  92 /  10  30  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  79  88  79  88 /  20  20   0  10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...03
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion