023 FXUS63 KLMK 150121 AFDLMKArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 921 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...Forecast Update...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry weather is expected over the next week. With most of the region experiencing abnormally dry or moderate drought conditions already, many counties have burn bans in place at this time. Temperatures will be unseasonably warm with highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
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.UPDATE... Issued at 920 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour with convective activity displaced well to our west. Still can`t completely rule out an isolated shower or storm across the SW CWA through the overnight where PWATs are higher and some lingering instability resides.
Outside of that, the only other area of focus will be whether we see some patchy fog tonight across our southern CWA, and especially SW CWA where dew points are higher and will mix with good radiational cooling conditions. Something to watch overnight outside of an otherwise quiet evening.
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.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Afternoon satellite imagery shows partly to mostly sunny skies across much of southern Indiana and central Kentucky. We still have a residual Cu field across portions of the region. A few showers/storms were located southeast of Bowling Green and moving southward. Temperatures were generally in the mid-upper 80s across the area. The exception has been in the I-65 corridor of central Kentucky where lingering cloud cover has delayed diurnal heating. Here temperatures were in the upper 70s.
For the remainder of the afternoon, no significant weather is expected. An isolated shower/storm will be possible over far southern KY associated with convective outflow from this morning`s convection. Elsewhere, the diurnal Cu field will diminish toward sunset. Afternoon highs will be in the mid-upper 80s (84-89) across much of the region. The exception will again be down in the I-65 corridor from E-town south toward Bowling Green where afternoon highs will only warm into the lower to middle 80s.
For tonight, skies should start off mostly clear with evening temps in the upper 70s to the lower-mid 80s. Overnight, there is a risk of some additional shower/storm development over the far western portions of the forecast area (mainly west of the I-165 corridor) along a weak surface boundary. This area is coincident with a higher PWAT axis. For now, plan on covering things with a silent PoP (
NWS LMK Office Area Forecast Discussion