Red Hill, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

919
FXUS62 KCAE 272343
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
743 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers this evening. Rain chances decrease for Sunday
as drier air pushes in behind a surface front. Early next week,
heavy rainfall remains possible as a tropical depression moves
northward.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):
- Scattered showers through midnight, then areas of low clouds
  and fog may develop.
Radar still showing isolated showers across the area, and expect
to see isolated activity to remain through midnight. After that,
dry weather conditions should prevail. Should see some low cloud
and even some areas of fog developing after midnight and towards
morning across the area. Overnight lows mainly in the middle
60s still looking reasonable.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Drier weather for Sunday before rain chances ramp up overnight
The axis of an upper level trough is forecast to remain to our
west on Sunday shifting eastward through the day. At the
surface, the associated boundary will be east of the forecast
area allowing drier air to work into the region. Mean PWAT
values from the HREF range from 1.2 inches west to 1.5 inches
closer to the coast. This will largely limit convective
development in central SC and the CSRA in the afternoon. Highs
will probably be slightly below normal as winds should be out of
the northeast through the day with increasing cloud cover
aiding in keeping things cooler.
Deeper moisture will be pushed back into the coastal plain
Sunday evening and overnight with scattered showers possibly
moving into our eastern counties around sunset. Convective
activity may increase overnight as moisture continues to feed
into the region. Lows will likely be in the upper 60s to around
70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Heavy rainfall remains possible early next week
The bulk of the long term forecast remains focused on the
evolution and track of TD9 which is moving toward the northwest
near 6 mph (9 km/h). A north-northwestward motion is expected to
begin later today and continue through Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of the system is expected to move across the
central and northwestern Bahamas this weekend and approach the
southeast U.S. coast early next week.
Confidence is increasing that this system will pull deep
moisture off of the Atlantic and into the Carolinas. Due to
this, the threat of flooding rainfall remains the greatest area
of concern for central SC and the CSRA. On the current track,
shower or thunderstorms may begin to move into the area as early
as Monday, but the heaviest rain is most likely Monday night
and Tuesday. This flooding rain threat may continue through mid-
week depending on the eventual track of the system. Confidence
is lower in any impacts from strong winds which will be more
highly dependent on the track. The potential influence from
Humberto may pull the system eastward and limit the wind threat
for central SC and the CSRA.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Isolated showers remain possible through 04z across the region,
but impacts to taf locations limited to the Midlands sites over
the next hour. Otherwise, dry weather should prevail through the
majority of the overnight hours at all locations. Bigger issue
will be the potential development of low clouds and areas of
fog late tonight and through sunrise on Sunday. Do expect
ifr/lifr conditions to be associated with the clouds and fog at
all locations, especially after 09z-10z, lasting through 15z
before conditions begin improving into mvfr and to vfr by 18z.
Winds will be mainly light and variable, to calm, overnight
before turning more northeasterly wind speeds between 5 and 10
knots through the day Sunday.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain chances are bit lower Sunday
afternoon, but deep moisture remains in place into early week
with more widespread rain chances possible. Restrictions each
morning will be possible.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion