Regency, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

102
FXUS61 KAKQ 271813
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
213 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front lingers over the area through today,
with an upper trough settling over the Southeast by the weekend.
This will bring more unsettled conditions through the weekend.
Impacts from any tropical development would be late Monday
through Tuesday night if they occur. However, uncertainity
remains high regarding this.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 210 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Message:
- A Flood Watch has been expanded to the I-95 corridor through
  midnight tonight. Some areas could see between 2-4"+ of rain
  in a short period of time today.
Afternoon surface analysis depicted an upper level low centered
over the deep south, allowing for favorable isentropic ascent
overtop of a stationary front located across far S VA. PW
values this afternoon were 1.9-2.1" across SE VA and NE NC.
Given the favorable synoptic ascent, widespread moderate to
locally heavy showers continue across the area. These showers
have already prompted several Flash Flood Warnings across
south central VA earlier today and still pose the risk of some
isolated to scattered Flash Flooding, especially along the
stationary front where a focal point for convection is located.
A widespread swath of 1-3" (locally 3-5") has already fallen
(indicated by MRMS) generally along the I-95 corridor. As such,
the Flood Watch has been expanded W to include Brunswick County
north to Henrico County and NE across the Northern Neck as well
as Northampton County, VA where heavy rain was observed earlier
this morning. For the remainder of E/SE VA, the Flood Watch
remains in effect until midnight. While CAMs have had a poor
handle on the convection this morning, the 12z HREF continues to
show a 30% chance for 3" of rain in 3 hours across areas under
the Flood Watch later this afternoon into this evening. As such,
additional flooding is possible across the watch area through
this evening. Rain tapers off from SW to NE this evening into
tonight, potentially lingering across the Eastern Shore through
tonight. Otherwise, highs today will only be in the lower- mid
70s NW with upper 70s-lower 80s SE. Lows tonight in the low to
middle 60s inland and upper 60s along the coast are expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Shower chances continue on Sunday, but with little additional rain
  and less in the way of thunder chances.
- Shower chances increase again on Monday.
By Sunday the upper trough will be over most of the area. While
LLVL flow becomes more N-NE PW will still remain high. This will
allow for sable conditions for clouds and light to moderate showers.
The best chance for a possible thunderstorm will be across NE NC
where better daytime heating is expected to take place. QPF
continues to decease to ~.1" on Sunday. WPC has maintained Marginal
Excessive Rainfall Risk for the far southern portion of NE NC. Highs
for sunday will be much cooler than the previous days as the cloud
cover persists. Highs will be in the  middle 70s inland and upper
70s across the far southeast. By Sunday night temperatures will drop
into the lower to middle 60s inland and upper 60s along the coast.
By Monday, a shortwave trough will move over the area helping push
the stalled frontal boundary off the coast and bring rain chances
back into the forecast. Highs Monday will be in the middle to upper
70s. During this time PTC-9 will continue to advance norther through
the Western Bahamas Sunday and should be somewhere off the coast of
Florida by Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- A unsettled pattern continues next week.
- Humberto is forecast to become a major hurricane well offshore and
  PTC-9 is now off the coast of Cuba and south of the Bahamas.
Early next week the closed upper low will remain over the Mid-
Atlantic and Southeast. While further north a strong high builds
over Quebec and Ontario. Still a lot of uncertainty remains. The
recent 00z model and ensemble guidance consensus show the high
slowly building south toward the eastern Great Lakes by the middle
to end of next week. PTC-9 will likely move N/NW to a position near
the Southeast CONUS coast. There still remains the question if we
see direct impacts of PTC-9. If there are direct impacts from PTC-9,
they would likely be from late Monday through Tuesday night.
Nevertheless, unsettled weather conditions and rain chances will
continue through early next week. Depending the tack of PTC-9
locally heavy rainfall is certainly possible across parts of the
area which could lead to flooding especially with the rain already
expected this weekend. NE winds are likely Tuesday night bringing
breezy conditions across the area. By Wed/Wed night winds will
increase as cold air is advected into the region as the strong high
building southward. This will also allow for drier weather to
finally return. Mainly dry through Fri with rain chances potentially
returning by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Saturday...
Widespread showers continue to spread across the region this
afternoon with locally heavy rain and IFR VIS possible through
the afternoon into early this evening. Showers taper off from SW
to NE this evening into tonight. Will note that a few
thunderstorms are possible at ORF/ECG late this afternoon, but
otherwise, most of the convection should remain showers. CIGs
were mainly MVFR apart from some IFR inland. IFR CIGs are
possible at RIC between now and 21z, SBY from 22-00z, PHF ~3z,
and ~6z at ORF. Confidence is lower at ORF/ECG in IFR CIGs
tonight. As such, have kept CIG MVFR at ECG until 11z Sun, but
IFR CIGs are possible earlier. Additionally, patchy fog is
possible overnight. CIGs improve to MVFR by Sun afternoon.
Outlook: Sub-VFR CIGs likely linger across the terminals Sun.
There is a low chance for a few showers across SE VA/NE NC Sun.
Periods of sub-VFR conditions are possible through the week with
rain chances increasing Mon.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 305 AM EDT Saturday...
- Sub-SCA through the weekend, with scattered showers and
  storms today and Saturday.
- Deteriorating conditions and building NE winds are likely from
  for the first half of next week. Continue to monitor the
  forecast and the latest information from the National
  Hurricane Center regarding the progress of Humberto and
  Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 (formerly Invest 94L).
Latest analysis reveals a surface cold front just south of the local
waters early this morning. Weak high pressure remains well offshore,
with a second area of high pressure well off to the NW. Winds remain
light out of the E-NE ~5-10kt. Seas 2ft and waves are 1ft or less.
The front nudges offshore this morning. Additional multiple
waves of showers/thunderstorms are expected today, moving NNE
along the stalled front and lifting it back north as a warm
front. winds veer around to the SSE this afternoon and evening
over the lower bay and central and southern waters. Showers and
storms eventually weaken as the front becomes a bit more diffuse
with time tonight and Sunday, with winds veering back around to
the NNW tomorrow ~10kt. Seas 2-3 ft, waves 1-2 ft.
Attention then turns to the former AL94, now known as Potential
Tropical Cyclone 9, and quite possibly soon to be Tropical
Cyclone Imelda. By any name, there remains a fair amount of
spread amongst the deterministic and multi-model ensembles
regarding the handling of this system. At this time, solutions
range from a landfall over the coastal Carolinas to keeping the
system offshore. If the latter were to occur, it would be
largely due to the influence of powerful Hurricane Humberto out
in the central Atlantic. The latest NHC track for Humberto shows
the system increasing speed NW and remaining well offshore,
though in any scenario, Humberto will send increasingly strong
long- period swell toward the local waters for much of the first
half of next week, which will quickly build seas Monday through
midweek. Strong high pressure building to the north will lock
in a prolonged period of elevated NE winds and high surf across
our area due to the tightening pressure gradient and incoming
strong E-SE swell. NE winds pick up to 15-20kt Monday and Monday
night with seas increasing AOA 4-5ft. Winds and seas increase
further Tues into Wed with increasing potential for gale force
gusts Wed afternoon and evening.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ075>090-092-093-
     095>098-100-512>525.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ERI/HET
NEAR TERM...HET/RMM
SHORT TERM...ERI/HET
LONG TERM...ERI/HET
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...MAM

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion