Richland, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

528
FXUS63 KGRR 061125
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
725 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers into tonight; Below average temps remain through Monday
- Increasingly warmer next week with little to no chance of rain
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
- Showers into tonight; Below average temps remain through Monday
Not much going on across the area this morning to start off the
forecast. There is a fairly solid low/mid deck of clouds around 5k
ft across the northern third of the forecast area. The rest of the
area is shrouded by mainly high clouds with some low/mid cloud cover
under it. No rain is being detected by the radar or observations as
of 3 am this morning.
It looks like much of the day will be dry for most of the area. A
pop up diurnal rain shower can not be ruled out once we start seeing
diurnal instability get a boost under this upper trough/cold pool
aloft. This is not likely however most of the day as we will be in
between short wave troughs, and short wave ridging moving through.
Forecast soundings along the lakeshore show just enough lake
modified instability/vertical development later this afternoon that
would support a shower.
The much better chance of scattered showers will come toward 00z and
linger into the overnight hours for much of the area, with better
concentration toward the lake. This is the result of a strong short
wave trough expected to swing through. This will combine with lake
instability to form the showers, and continue inland. The short wave
is forecast to swing through around 06z or so, with shower activity
tapering off after that time.
A shower will remain possible into Sunday, but chances will only
continue to taper off in the afternoon as we lose the cold pool
aloft, and the upper flow becomes more anti-cyclonic as the upper
jet lifts NE.
Temperatures will be the coolest today with the upper cold pool
firmly entrenched. Temperatures will modify through Monday as 850 mb
temperatures warm from 3-4C today to 6-8C by Monday afternoon.
- Increasingly warmer next week with little to no chance of rain
The chance of rain is not zero for next week from Monday through
Friday for most of the area, but it is not far from zero.
High pressure at the sfc over the area on Monday will shift to the
ENE by Tuesday. This will allow a southerly flow set up out ahead of
a frontal system that will be out to our west. The front will be
trying to move toward the area, but looks to get stuck before making
it here.
A couple of short waves associated with the supporting upper trough
will lift NE, but will stay NW of the area. The far NW section of
the forecast area could see a few showers clip them, but the vast
majority of the rain with the system will stay NW of the area.
The whole upper trough weakens as it moves NW of the area. We see
some semblance of it slip over the area, but there is no real energy
with it, or moisture, to help produce any meaningful rain chances.
Eventually, the trough dampens enough, and we see upper ridge take
control over the region mid-late week. This will bring more dry
weather, and help temps to warm toward 80F by the end of the week as
850 mb temps increase to the lower teens C.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 725 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
VFR conditions dominate at our six terminals this morning,
although there is quite a bit of cloud cover in the layer from
5-7k ft agl. We expect this will continue, and even become bkn at
5k ft with a diurnal boost to cumulus/stratocumulus clouds this
afternoon. There may be an isolated shower this afternoon, but
the best chance will come after dark. Winds will become a bit
gusty after 15-16z, but not as bad as Friday with gusts 20-25
knots. These winds will diminish just before sunset.
A wave of low pressure will move toward the area after 22z. This
will help showers to develop more from West to East. Have included
a 6 hr window for this with possible MVFR visibilities in a prob30
group at all of the sites.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 332 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
No changes needed to the marine/beach headlines at this time.
Conditions improve slightly later today as winds lighten up
slightly. This will be temporary, as winds will pick up again in the
wake of the wave moving through tonight. Waves will not improve much
with the short lull in winds, and the unstable conditions over the
warmer lake. They will then ramp up by Sunday morning, and come down
late Sunday. The northern marine zones may not see waves quite as
high as southern areas, but they will still stay high enough to
leave the headlines in place at this time.
Conditions should quiet down then for much of the week after Sunday.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday afternoon for MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion