Rindal, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

314
FXUS63 KFGF 171946
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
246 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A wet period setting up from tonight thru Friday night, with
  focus for highest rainfall potential being southeast North
  Dakota and west central Minnesota. Outdoor activities plus
  ongoing harvest will be impacted to varying degrees.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...Synopsis...
A pair of upper lows to our west will wobble east and rotate
around each other as we head into the later part of the work
weak. The southernmost upper circulation will lift
northeastwards towards the ND/SD border tomorrow, remaining over
the Dakotas through Friday before moving off into the upper
midwest over the weekend. Another upper low starts to move into
the Dakotas for Monday, and then down into the central MS
Valley by the middle of next week.
...Rain tonight into Friday night...
ECMWF EFI has a fairly robust wet signal for the Dakotas from
tonight through 00Z Saturday, then again for Monday. Instability
looks fairly weak, although some ensemble members bring some
CAPE into our southern counties for tomorrow, with probability
of over 1000 J/kg around 25 percent. With not a lot of CAPE and
deep layer shear around 30 kts, the main issue continues to be
heavy rainfall. Probabilities for over an inch of rain through
Friday night are still highest in southeastern ND, ranging from
50 to 80 percent. Chances for heavy rainfall trail off
significantly further northeast, with less than half an inch
expected near Lake of the Woods. The rainfall is expected over
several days and should not all come at once, with the 75th
percentile for 6 hourly QPF not getting above half an inch. At
this point, think rain should soak in pretty well and will not
message much more than we already have.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Scattered to broken MVFR stratocu stretching across our northern
TAF sites this afternoon, with all but KFAR bouncing back and
forth between VFR and MVFR. Should see some of the lower
ceilings scattering out later this afternoon so will keep an
improvement trend before sunset. Models are fairly consistent on
all TAF sites dropping down to MVFR or even IFR by tomorrow
morning. A few models show low visibility as well, but more
certainty with the ceilings rather than fog. Some rain showers
possible at the more southern airports by the end of the period.
Winds will shift from the north at less than 10 kts to a more
easterly direction at 10 to 15 kts.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion