Rios, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

253
FXUS64 KCRP 171811
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
111 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1228 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
- Low to medium (20-40%) shower and thunderstorm chances through
  early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Daily low to medium rain and thunderstorm chances (20-40%) continue
through early next week in response to a few passing disturbances
in the flow aloft combined with enough Gulf moisture and diurnal
heating/instability. Most of the activity can be expected to occur
along the sea breeze, and in the late morning to afternoon hours.
By next week, however, some models are indicating a slight uptick
in moisture over the area along with a somewhat stronger mid-
level disturbance passage. This could lead to slightly higher rain
chances, but have capped the NBM at 60% inland, until better
agreement is reached. Otherwise, expect slightly above to above
normal temperatures through next week, with highs in the 90s and
overnight lows mostly in the 70s.
A persistent easterly flow over the coastal waters during the
past few days has lead to tide levels reaching 1.6-1.7 ft at high
tide in Port Aransas. This has resulted in water reaching some of
the walkways and approach the dunes overnight, before receding by
daybreak. No Coastal Flood Advisory is currently in effect, but
conditions will need to be followed closely in case one is
required overnight for the next high tide cycle (~ 4 AM).
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Mostly VFR conditions will prevail across area terminals through
the cycle, with the exception of a brief period (08-12Z) of MVFR
visibilities at VCT early Thursday owing to patchy fog formation.
A few showers could impact the western sites this afternoon, but
confidence on timing and location remains low. Therefore, have
not added a mention of it in the TAFs, but will keep track of the
current activity in case amendments are necessary. Winds will
generally be light and variable, except at CRP where gusts to 20
knots are expected this afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) east to southeasterly breeze will
persist through early next week. There will be a low to medium
chance (30-60%) of showers and thunderstorms through the week into
the weekend, with slightly higher chances next week (60-70%).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    75  90  75  91 /   0  10  10  20
Victoria          70  94  69  94 /   0  20   0  10
Laredo            73  97  74  97 /  10  20   0  20
Alice             71  94  71  94 /   0  10  10  20
Rockport          78  90  76  91 /   0  20  10  20
Cotulla           71  96  71  97 /  10  10   0  10
Kingsville        72  92  72  92 /  10  20  10  30
Navy Corpus       80  87  80  88 /  10  20  20  30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ANM/88
AVIATION...ANM/88

NWS CRP Office Area Forecast Discussion