Road Forks, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

609
FXUS64 KEPZ 272332
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
532 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 530 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening, then more
   numerous rain showers overnight. Widespread showers and
   thunderstorms east of the Rio Grande on Sunday, some of which
   could result in flash flooding.
- Drier and warmer weather Tuesday through the rest of the week
   ahead. Lowland highs back in the upper eighties.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Very difficult/low-confidence forecast for today and tonight.
Water vapor imagery shows out cutoff upper low over the lower
Colorado Basin, with several vort lobes noted across southern
Arizona. Dry slotting is pushing into SW New Mexico, and that`s
helping to clear out leftover cirrus and convective debris that
was abundant this morning. The NAM and GFS both indicate most of
SW New Mexico will destabilize, despite weak capping at 600 mb
associated with the dry slot. SBCAPE values of 800-1200 J/Kg look
to be common west of the Rio Grande in NM by mid-afternoon.
However, model fields also suggest we`re in an area of neutral
vorticity advection as the shortwave trough that helped keep last
night`s light rain and cloud cover going has moved northeast of
the area. Higher aloft, 200mb streamlines suggest a weakly
confluent pattern over SW New Mexico, with diffluent flow having
shifted to eastern New Mexico. Both the NAM and GFS suggest a weak
shortwave trough will approach from the southwest between 21-24Z.
With the drier air aloft, it`s difficult to see anything
reflected in water vapor imagery. But the models suggest this will
be coming from central Sonora, and there is a stubborn
thunderstorm stuck on the coast near San Carlos. All across the
Sierra Madres and into the Gila Region, just ragged cu has
developed so far.
The NAM and GFS both indicate a weak surface/low-level
convergence zone forming along the Rio Grande later this afternoon
and overnight, which could provide a focus for convection later
on.
The 12Z HREF was all over the place, especially later tonight. But
the HRRR from 12Z and subsequent runs have shown some consistency
with convection developing over the Bootheel, Gila, and the Casas
Grandes Valley of NW Chihuahua after 21-22Z, and very little
convection to the east, except maybe an isolated pop-up along the
eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mountains. The SW New Mexico
storms move NE to NNE and diminish before sunset, and before
reaching the Rio Grande. However, most HREF members show
scattered convection lifting into south-central New Mexico and far
west Texas later tonight, generally after midnight, and lasting
into the morning hours Sunday. The NAM and GFS suggest low level
moisture will increase during this time frame, with the NAM also
indicating strengthening convergence in the 850-700 mb layer as SE
flow just aloft delivers additional moisture. The GFS also
indicates as vort lobe slowly moving into SW New Mexico during the
late night hours as well. This all favors the scattered overnight
convection solution.
So, bottom line... expect widely scattered convection in SW New
Mexico this afternoon, diminishing towards sunset and sputtering
as it tries to move east of a TCS-DMN line. An isolated
thunderstorm can`t be ruled out over the Sacramento Mountains,
favoring the east slopes, with little convection this afternoon
elsewhere. Additional scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will develop over Mexico and lift into the area overnight into
Sunday morning.
On Sunday, the upper low will weaken into an open trough as it
finally kicks out to the northeast, reaching the Four Corners by
Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing at
daybreak Sunday. They`ll mostly lift north and east of El Paso and
Las Cruces by mid-morning, but we might not completely dry out
CWA-wide before additional scattered convection fires up to our
south and lifts N to NNE across the area. Showers and
thunderstorms may be off and on all day and into the
overnight, until additional dry air aloft moves in from the west
on Monday. The Sacramento Mountains, and to a lesser extent, the
Black Range, could still fire up additional thunderstorms Monday
afternoon as the trough swings through.
Some training of cells could result in localized flash flooding,
with deeper convection that develops later Sunday into Sunday
night. Otherwise, the Sacramento Mountains will see the highest
rainfall amounts late tonight through Monday morning, with some
areas getting over 1 inch, but mostly spread out over a long
duration, outside of training cells later Sunday.
Increased deep layer (0-6km) shear around 30-40 knots could help
organize convection and lead to a few severe thunderstorms Sunday,
assuming deeper convection does materialize. Lower-level shear
also looks to be enhanced over parts of southern Otero and
Hudspeth Counties Sunday afternoon, as low level SE flow
increases. These areas may have a tougher time getting rid of the
morning showers and destabilizing, but this will need to be
watched closely.
Tuesday onwards looks dry as monsoonal moisture even deep into
Mexico begins to scour out for the season. With drier conditions
and light winds expected, we`ll start to see our usual overnight
low cold spots develop in valleys embedded in the Gila Region and
Sacramento Mountains, and a few desert locales like the Jornada
Range as well.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Isolated TSRA across S NM this evening, likely not affecting
local terminals next few hours. SHRA coverage increasing early
Sunday morning, with VCSH and -RA across the Rio Grande Valley
from 06-12Z. Skies generally SCT-BKN070 BKN120 overnight with
surface winds variable AOB 06 knots. Numerous TSRA across W TX and
south-central NM on Sunday, temporary IFR visibility possible at
KELP tomorrow due to storms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Thunderstorms will be scattered and focused over southwestern New
Mexico this afternoon and evening, with more widespread showers
developing late night and spreading into the Sacramento Mountains
in the early morning hours Sunday. Scattered to numerous storms on
Sunday afternoon will lead to an enhanced risk of burn scar flash
flooding. A warming and drying trend will take hold on Monday and
especially Tuesday, with RH steadily falling throughout the work
week, but staying about 20 percent areawide. Winds will remain
light with the exception of erratic gusts produced by thunderstorm
outflows.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  65  80  63  82 /  70  70  50  20
Sierra Blanca            59  74  55  74 /  60  80  60  40
Las Cruces               59  77  58  78 /  70  70  60  30
Alamogordo               59  77  56  78 /  70  80  50  30
Cloudcroft               43  55  41  56 /  70  90  60  50
Truth or Consequences    58  76  56  76 /  60  60  50  30
Silver City              52  73  52  73 /  40  40  30  30
Deming                   59  82  59  81 /  50  40  40  20
Lordsburg                58  79  59  79 /  30  20  10  10
West El Paso Metro       65  78  63  79 /  60  70  60  20
Dell City                62  76  58  78 /  70  70  50  20
Fort Hancock             65  80  61  81 /  60  90  60  40
Loma Linda               58  70  55  71 /  70  80  60  30
Fabens                   64  79  61  80 /  70  80  50  20
Santa Teresa             62  77  60  78 /  60  70  50  20
White Sands HQ           61  77  59  77 /  70  80  60  40
Jornada Range            60  76  57  76 /  70  80  60  40
Hatch                    60  80  59  78 /  60  70  60  30
Columbus                 61  82  61  81 /  50  40  40  10
Orogrande                59  74  56  76 /  80  80  60  30
Mayhill                  49  63  46  66 /  60  80  40  50
Mescalero                48  67  45  68 /  60  80  60  50
Timberon                 47  63  45  64 /  80  80  60  50
Winston                  47  69  47  69 /  40  60  40  30
Hillsboro                54  76  54  75 /  50  50  50  30
Spaceport                58  75  56  76 /  60  70  60  30
Lake Roberts             47  74  47  73 /  40  50  40  40
Hurley                   53  75  53  75 /  40  40  40  30
Cliff                    55  80  54  80 /  50  30  20  20
Mule Creek               52  75  51  76 /  30  20  10  10
Faywood                  55  74  55  73 /  50  50  50  30
Animas                   57  80  58  81 /  20  20  10  10
Hachita                  58  79  58  78 /  40  30  30  10
Antelope Wells           56  80  57  80 /  20  20  20  10
Cloverdale               55  75  54  76 /  20  10  10  10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion