Roanoke Rapids Air Force Sta, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

052
FXUS62 KRAH 281834
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
232 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the north will combine with the tropical low
pressure east of Florida to bring extensive cloudiness and
eventually periods of rain to the region in the deep easterly flow
through late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Stronger high pressure and
some drier air will build in from the north mid-week as TD9 pulls
east and well out to sea.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 232 PM Sunday...
Lowering clouds and increasing rain chances later tonight.
A moist NE flow had developed across NC today as a weak stationary
front had set up along the coast with higher pressure to our north.
This has resulted in generally cloudy skies throughout the region.
Showers were confined to the offshore waters. Temperatures were
noticeably cooler with readings in the mid 70s to near 80 SE. Dew
points remained elevated in the 60s with 70+ readings along the
Coastal Plain. The old mid/upper low over the region will continue
to shear out as ridging from the Atlantic builds westward. This will
force the high moisture levels offshore back inland later tonight.
Expect low stratus again later tonight. In addition, expect some
areas of showers in the southeast by daybreak. Lows 65-70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 232 PM Sunday...
Showers expected to overspread the region Monday and Monday night.
Surface high pressure will build down the eastern seaboard as TD9 is
forecast to develop well off the FL coast. Even with TD9 not expected
to make direct impacts to the region, the very moist air mass over
the western Atlantic will push back inland with PW`s expected to
reach 2.25 inches SE and 1.5+ NW Monday and Monday night in the
increasing mean easterly flow. Areas of showers are expected to
develop/overspread central NC from the south and east during the
day. Categorical to likely SE to NW POP will be forecast with QPF
remaining fairly light during most of the day, reaching 0.1 to 0.25
for many areas. The rainfall rates are expected to increase with
increased banding of rainfall expected later Monday and Monday
night. The heavier QPF is expected in the SE with lighter amounts in
the NW. Highs only in the lower 70s NW and 75-80 SE. Lows in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 227 PM Sunday...
After stalling TD9 off the FL/GA coast likely as a TS or Hurricane
early Tuesday, ensembles continue to trend towards an eastward
ejection of the system away from the US through middle to late week.
While direct impacts from the tropical system are very unlikely at
this point, there is still a concern for periods of moderate to
heavy rain especially early Tuesday.
The weak upper wave will move across the southeast Tuesday into
Wednesday. Remnant mid-level forcing embedded within a steady stream
of anomalous moisture (PWAT ~150% of normal; 2+ inches generally
through Tuesday night) should generate periods of showers Tuesday
morning and afternoon. As the tropical system pulls eastward, strong
sfc high pressure centered over eastern Canada will extend drier air
down into our area. As such, expect a general drying trend from nw
to se through Tuesday night. In general, most guidance keeps much of
central NC stable through Wednesday morning. However, some
instability could develop inland over our far southeastern counties.
If realized, there could be potential for some more enhanced rain
rates down in our southern Coastal Plain Tuesday. The
GEFS/EPS/Euro/GFS all show highest 24 hr QPF (~1 to 1.5 inches from
12Z Tuesday through 12Z Wednesday) in this vicinity. While the FFG
in this area is relatively high, if any heavier rain develops over
urban areas there could be a concern for isolated flash flooding on
Tuesday. Overall though, think the flooding threat is higher along
the coast (WPC has removed the slight excessive rainfall risk from
our area; only our far southeast remains in a marginal ERO now).
Otherwise, expect a little gustiness across the far southeast (20 to
30 mph at times) through Tuesday evening.
From Wednesday onward, expect cooler temperatures (highs in the
lower 70s) and dry weather through Friday under nely flow. Nely flow
and dry weather will likely continue through next weekend with a
gradual warm up into the upper 70s/lower 80s by Sunday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 225 PM Sunday...
MVFR to VFR cigs will lower to IFR to LIFR overnight. There is a
chance of rain and fog later tonight, especially south and east.
Looking beyond 12z Mon, IFR to MVFR conditions will dominate
dominate well into Tuesday night with periods of rain and fog
as well. Conditions are expected to slowly improve Wed.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...RAH

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion