Roanoke Rapids, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

439
FXUS62 KRAH 101833
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
235 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the Northeast will extend down through
the Mid Atlantic and the Carolinas through much of the work week,
although a lingering frontal zone near the Carolina coast will bring
periods of clouds and unsettled weather, mainly over the eastern
Carolinas.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 235 PM Wednesday...
* Continued generally cloudy east with patchy drizzle and fog
  through tonight, especially northeast.
* Fair west, but with a risk of shallow fog late.
Narrow surface ridging continues to extend through central NC from
the N, while a frontal zone off the NC coast, including a frontal
low E of the VA Tidewater, reinforces low level flow from the NNE
and N into central NC. Vis satellite imagery shows thick clouds with
a few thin patches roughly along and E of the Hwy 1 corridor, while
clouds are much fewer/thinner over the W Piedmont. Recent ACARS
soundings confirm decent low level moisture, situated beneath stable
and drier air up through the mid levels, over the E CWA and upstream
over E VA. The low will continue to progress NE along the front and
away from NC through tonight, leading to a slackening MSLP gradient
and decreasing winds. But we`ll maintain a generally NNE low level
flow tonight, which will keep a steady feed of low level moisture
into the area from E VA, and thus any cloud holes or thin spots over
the E are likely to fill back into overcast tonight, with low clouds
spreading W well into the Piedmont late tonight. Shallow moist
isentropic upglide at 295-305K is expected to return after nightfall
over the NE and Coastal Plain, and while it won`t be particularly
deep or strong, given the abundance of moisture below the inversion
aloft, periods of drizzle should return and persist overnight in the
NE, mainly from RDU/FAY to the E and NE, although the risk of any
substantial measurable rain still appears low with no ice in the
clouds. In the W, where fewer clouds should equate to quicker
radiational cooling starting this evening, there are indications in
some guidance that shallow fog is possible late, although confidence
in this is not high. Temps today have been cooler than most guidance
indicated, with highs only in the 70s except mid-upper 60s far NE,
while they reached around 80/low 80s far SW. Expect lows tonight to
range from the upper 50s W to the low 60s E. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 PM Wednesday...
While low pressure off the North Carolina coast will be moving north
along the nearly stationary front, the flow will remain persistent
out of the north on Thursday. Similar to today, there will likely be
a gradient at sunrise of mostly sunny skies in the Triad to mostly
cloudy skies in the east. However, cloud cover should slowly scatter
out through the day. Cannot rule out an isolated shower east of US-1
along with some patchy drizzle northeast of Raleigh, but think that
the overall coverage of precipitation should be less than today.
Highs in the west should be similar to today`s values, around 80
degrees. Highs in the east should be a few degrees warmer than today
with less cloud cover. Lows should be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 135 PM Wednesday...
High pressure will be centered over southern Quebec Friday morning
with a ridge extending south into the Carolinas. The center of the
ridge will shift into the Carolinas by Sunday as a cold front moves
across the Great Lakes and low pressure reaches Lake Ontario. A
second cold front, one that has been along the Atlantic seaboard for
several days, could still bring an isolated shower into eastern
North Carolina over the weekend, but central North Carolina should
remain dry. The Great Lakes cold front should move across North
Carolina on Monday, but with minimal moisture, no rain is predicted
with the frontal passage. Behind the front, high pressure should re-
establish itself over the northeastern United States Tuesday and
push into the Carolinas on Wednesday.
Highs should be a couple degrees below normal at the start of the
period, ranging from the mid 70s to the mid 80s, before increasing
Sunday and Monday. Monday will have the highest temperatures of the
period, with highs in the 80s and an isolated 90 degree reading
possible. After the cold front moves through, highs will return to
the mid 70s through the mid 80s. 60s are expected Sunday and Monday
nights, with most locations in the 50s otherwise.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 PM Wednesday...
Weak high pressure will continue to nose southward over western and
central NC through early Thu, although the presence of a stationary
frontal zone just off the NC coast, and low pressure tracking
northward along it, will bring continue low level moisture
especially over the E and a risk for poor aviation conditions
through tonight. VFR conditions continue at INT/GSO this afternoon,
and while adverse aviation conditions persist at RDU/FAY/RWI (MVFR
cigs) currently, there has been gradual improvement since this
morning. This will continue for the rest of the afternoon at
RDU/FAY, which are expected to trend to VFR by 20z, although RWI
cigs are likely to stay MVFR through sunset. Given a steady stream
of low level moisture moving into central NC from the NNE through
tonight, RWI is expected to drop back to IFR by 04z-06z, as will
RDU/FAY by 06z-08z, with a period of LIFR conditions and patchy
drizzle possible at these 3 sites late, mainly 08z-12z. INT/GSO are
likely to stay VFR past 04z, however there is a decent chance of
shallow ground fog producing a period of IFR conditions there 08z-
12z, with quick improvement to VFR soon thereafter with heating and
dissipation of any fog/stratus. Improvement will be slower at
RDU/FAY and especially at RWI, with these sites expected to
gradually trend to VFR between 14z and 16z. Surface winds will be
from the NNE or N, around 8-12 kts with a few gusts at eastern
terminals through sunset, then dropping to under 8 kts this evening
through Thu.
Looking beyond 18z Thu, RWI cigs may remain MVFR into at least mid
afternoon Thu. Otherwise, with slow drying taking place, central NC
terminals should be mostly VFR into early next week, with ridges of
high pressure dominating at the surface, although a few more clouds
and gusty winds are possible Fri with passage of an upper level
disturbance over the area. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Hartfield

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion