Rock City Falls, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

334
FXUS61 KALY 061653
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1253 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A line of showers and thunderstorms will continuing moving across
the region this afternoon and tonight in advance of a cold front
that is slowly moving through the area. Some of the storms will be
strong to severe and will be capable of producing strong wind gusts
and heavy downpours. Behind this storm system, a prolonged stretch
of dry weather, along with cooler and less humid conditions, is
expected for Sunday through much of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key Message:
- Strong to severe storms expected across the lower Hudson
  Valley, Berkshires and northwest Connecticut this afternoon
  and early evening. Damaging winds, large hail and an isolated
  tornado are all possible with the strongest activity.
Early afternoon water vapor imagery showing a well-defined upper
shortwave approaching the eastern Great Lakes, with sfc
observations showing main cold front now stretched along a line
from Springfield, VT (VSF) southwest to Monticello, NY (MSV).
Ahead of this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the upper
70s to low 80s, with dewpoints residing in the upper 60s to low
70s. Meanwhile, areas west and northwest of the front show
temps in the lower to middle 60s. Main concerns heading into the
mid afternoon/early evening hours will be focused across the
lower Hudson Valley, Berkshires and Litchfield County areas, as
ingredients remain in place for developing severe thunderstorm
activity later today. Very interesting depiction of the
contrasting airmasses can be seen on the ALB and OKX observed
soundings from this morning`s 1200 UTC launch. While ALB largely
resided in a mostly stable airmass immediately along the front
this morning, the sounding from OKX paints an entirely
different picture, with large amounts of elevated buoyancy seen
with MUCAPE values of nearly 2500 J/kg. In addition, both
soundings indicating strengthening wind fields aloft as mid-
level jet along the east side of approaching trough axis
continues to track east with time. All this to say, things may
become fairly interesting in the next few hours as strong
buoyancy combined with stregthening shear fields will set the
stage for severe storms across the aforementioned locations
later today.
In terms of severe weather expectations, large buoyancy across the
lower Hudson Vly and points northeast through the Berkshires
could support large hail growth, especially considering the
large elevated instability as seen on OKX`s sounding this
morning. This is further verified on latest SPC Mesoanalysis
which shows a sharping MLCAPE axis of nearly 1500 J/kg
extending from Dutchess and Orange Counties, northeast into
central Massachusetts. In terms of strong wind gust potential,
SPC Mesoanalysis values are already above 700 J/kg extending
from the lower Hudson Vly northeast through western Connecticut.
Expect these magnitudes to only increase through the afternoon
as surface instability increases with peak daytime heating ahead
of the front. Finally, with respect to tornado potential, quick
look at RAP plan view 0-1, 0-3 and 0-6 km bulk shear vectors on
AWIPS does show some modest veering with height over these
layers, however fcst soundings from BUFKIT really do show uni-
directional wind profiles later today across our fcst zones.
Right now, SPC Mesoanalysis 0-1km SRH highlights the I-91
corridor and points east later today, with NAM BUFKIT fcst
soundings for HFD showing more low-level veering this afternoon
than areas further west. Regardless, the risk for a tornado or
two is certainly non-zero the further east towards the I-91
corridor you go given the strong wind fields aloft and better
low-level veering. All told, active radar monitoring expected
later this afternoon.
Severe convective activity should rapidly come to an end by 00z
this evening with loss of daytime heating, and weaker forcing
overall as initial shortwave energy translates northeast away
from our area. Another round of shwrs can be expected overnight
as sfc low now located across the southwest Pennsylvania lifts
north along the nearly stalled front. Another round of shwrs
will be possible early Sunday as next piece of shortwave energy
rotates through the area, however drier conditions should return
by afternoon. High temps across the entire fcst area on Sunday
will struggle to reach the 70 degree mark across higher terrain
locations, while low 70s dominate through the Hudson Vly.
Beyond this, high pressure looks to be in firm control as we start
the work week with below normal temps and low humidity
prevailing on Monday. Temps will begin to moderate back closer
to seasonable levels Tuesday and Wednesday with temps reaching
the lower to mid 70s both days. Next weather feature of interest
will arrive Thursday as another cold front sags south across
the Northeast. Right now, models largely show this feature
passing as a dry front, however cooler than normal temps look to
make a return by late week and next weekend as we reside in a
post frontal airmass.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12z Sunday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals
this morning, with the exception of KPSF where an MVFR ceiling
is currently in place, as clouds increase from northwest to
southeast in response to an incoming cold front and upper- level
disturbance. According to infrared satellite, KPSF should be
returning to VFR shortly. VFR conditions will then be in place
throughout the morning before showers and thunderstorms develop
to force MVFR to IFR conditions. Thunderstorms are more probable
at KPOU and KPSF this afternoon and evening, though cannot be
ruled out at KALB so kept a PROB30 group in to convey remaining
uncertainty.
Timing remains a bit uncertain for convection this afternoon but
the main window now looks to fall between 17 to 21z. Gradual
improvements throughout the evening will eventually see the
return of VFR conditions tonight. Additional showers could
impact KPOU and KPSF within the last 6 hours of the period as a
wave of low pressure nears the region. Therefore, PROB30 groups
were included to account for this but VFR conditions were
maintained as precipitation should be light. Winds throughout
the period will primarily prevail out of the northwest at
sustained speeds under 10 kt. Stronger thunderstorms at
KALB/KPOU/KPSF will be capable of producing gusts of at least 40
kt.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...32/Frugis
DISCUSSION...32/Frugis
AVIATION...Gant

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion