Rogers, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

647
FXUS63 KOAX 031652
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1152 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Windy conditions are expected Saturday afternoon. Although Red
  Flag criteria may not be met for many areas, with strong winds
  and dry ag fuels (fields) there is a concern for fires.
- Chances for showers and storms return to the area Sunday,
  with off and on chances through Tuesday.
- Cooler weather settles in Monday through the middle of next
  week. Lows Wednesday morning may dip into the mid to upper 30s
  for portions of northeastern Nebraska.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Anyone else ready for the 90s to end? Hot days make it difficult
to sleep for this night-shifter. An upper-level ridge in place
will make for another hot one with highs today peaking right
around 90 degrees for many locations. Dry air in place will keep
skies mostly clear with unremarkable winds out of the south.
As we go into the weekend, we`re watching an upper-level trough
currently located along the West Coast. This will be pushing
inland, amplifying southwesterly flow across the region going
into Saturday with a fairly windy afternoon/evening in store.
Strongest winds will likely be over northeast Nebraska where
gusts 35 to 45 mph will be possible. A well-mixed environment
will likely lead to drying conditions with potentially
marginally concerning fire weather conditions. Right now a lot
of our fine fuels are still fairly green making widespread fire
danger less of a concern, but agricultural fires could cause
problems as most crops still in the fields are very dry. Likely
won`t see a Red Flag Warning due to low threat for widespread
concerns, but will be messaging fire danger.
The upper-level trough develops a lee-side surface low over the
Northern Plains late Saturday into Sunday which will bring a
cold front through during the day on Sunday. This front stalls
across southeast Nebraska and western Iowa providing an axis to
focus moisture pooling and forcing for shower and storm activity
with rain chances really ramping up Sunday afternoon and
continuing into Monday along this stationary boundary. With rain
continuing over the same locations through Monday, we may see
concerning amounts of rainfall leading to flooding/flash
flooding. Good news is this axis appears to be over more rural
locations that can take more rain than say the I-80 corridor,
but still if we see 3+ inches of rainfall we may start to see
problems. Right now we`re forecasting amounts of 1-2 inches
along an axis from Page Co, IA through Marshall Co, KS.
As we go later into the forecast period forecast solutions
diverge due to a very unstable, active weather pattern. What
does appear to have some agreement is that precip should be
ending Tuesday as High Pressure slides eastward across the area.
We likely see temperatures warm back up toward the latter half
of next week with the return of some form of ridging pattern,
whether it`s fairly progressive or some stronger ridge
returning.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with
little to no cloud cover. South winds will strengthen to 12-14
kt with gusts of 20-22 kt this afternoon. Winds are expected to
diminish some by this evening, with LLWS developing by 04/04z,
and continuing to around 04/15z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Mead

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion