Roscoe, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

464
FXUS63 KSGF 222017
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
317 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will occur across areas
  mainly along and south of I-44 this afternoon/evening.
- Confidence is increasing in the best chance for additional
  widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to occur across our
  south/southwestern counties Tuesday morning into Wednesday. A
  Flood Watch is in effect for portions of the area tonight
  through Wednesday morning.
- There is a Marginal risk for severe weather tonight, primarily
  west of Highway 65, with damaging winds as the primary
  hazard. Another Marginal to Slight risk exists on Tuesday
  along/south of Highway 60.
- Seasonal temperatures and lingering rain chances will occur
  midweek before drier, more pleasant conditions arrive into the
  weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Pretty messy synoptic setup, as an upper level Low over the Great
Lakes region continues to push a shortwave through the area today,
with several additional upper lows conjoining into a positively
tilted upper level trough that`s progged to pivot through the region
through midweek. Satellite imagery shows a cumulus field over the
area, with radar beginning to pick up on a few echoes primarily
south of I-44 (as of 3 PM) that are resulting from a semi-stationary
frontal boundary to our south over central/northern Arkansas. With
the residual cloud cover that was observed earlier this
morning/early afternoon, temperatures have been limited to the low
to mid 80s across the Ozarks.
The primary show will be later tonight through tomorrow as the more
prominent upper low ejects from the Rockies. An associated
surface low over the Central Plains will begin to push eastward
dragging a cold front as an LLJ develops over KS/OK Tuesday
morning before pushing into the Missouri Ozarks.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an MCS will begin pushing
into our eastern CWA a few hours before sunrise. CAMs suggest these
moving fairly progressively, however with several rounds of trailing
showers/storms, heavy rainfall is likely, leading to a flooding
threat primarily over areas in our south/southwest. Looking at the
12Z ensemble guidance, 24-hour HREF LPMM (Local probability matched
mean - which shows reasonable localized high-end amounts) shows
widespread 0.75"-1.25", with far southwest MO between 1.5"-3" and
localized pockets up to 5.5". With soil moistures in the 60-80%+
range in this area after already receiving 2-5" (localized up to 8-
9") over the weekend, 3-hr flash flood guidance lies between the 2-
2.5" range. There`s still a question as to where the axis of highest
QPF sets up (which looks to be south of our CWA), however went ahead
and issued a Flood Watch for our southern/southwest counties from
1AM tonight through Wednesday morning to account for the flooding
threat. Safe to say, drought conditions will likely be improving
after the sufficient rainfall.
Additionally, the Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a
Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms tonight for areas west of
Highway 65, with damaging winds as the primary hazard as the frontal
boundary pushes thunderstorms into the area. Once we get into
tomorrow, areas along/south of Highway 60 are in another Marginal
Risk, with a sliver of our southwest counties in a Slight risk. The
best timing for severe storms tomorrow looks to be during the early
afternoon hours, with the potential for some lingering severe
chances into the late afternoon/early evening. Dewpoints into the
upper 60s/low 70s, instability between 1000-2000 J/kg, bulk shear up
to 30-45kts, and ample lift will all support more of an organized
severe threat, although the better threat looks to be more south of
the area over Oklahoma/Arkansas. There`s a low chance (5%) for an
isolated tornado, with HREF 4-hr max updraft helicity tracks
highlighting this potential over the very far southwest CWA before
pushing south into Arkansas. If there was better low level wind
shear, confidence in the tornado threat would be higher, but as
of right now, we`re keeping it more as a lower-end threat. The
more likely hazards look to be large hail, damaging winds,
frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Lingering rain chances continue on Wednesday (40-60%) and Thursday
(097-101>105.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Melto

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion