Rosedale, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

093
FXUS63 KEAX 081957
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
257 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and storms possible later tonight into early tomorrow
  morning. No severe expected.
- Warming trend starting this Wednesday into the weekend. Highs
  will reach the upper 80s to low 90s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Broad mid to upper level ridging remains over the western U.S. with
troughing over the eastern U.S. At the surface, a high pressure is
situated just east of the Ohio River Valley with a surface low over
the Dakotas. A H500 shortwave that has moved through the flow, on
the eastern side of the ridge, has provided lift for a cluster of
showers and storms currently (as of 19Z) over eastern KS. This
cluster of showers and storms has become stagnant due to the drier
air mass to the east associated with the surface high. A few weak
returns on radar over Miami and Linn counties could suggest the
potential for a sprinkle or two if that.
Tonight into early Tuesday morning, the aforementioned H500
shortwave continues to move through the flow over our area. The H850
low-level jet intensifying with southerly winds will increase
moisture transport. Low-level convergence due to a differential
heating boundary over eastern KS and western MO will result in a 30-
60% chance for showers and storms late this evening into early
tomorrow morning. For now, eastern KS and western MO look to be the
most favorable for showers and storms as that is where the better
forcing will reside. Limited instability (illustrated by MUCAPE
values below 300 J/kg), weak shear (bulk shear values around 20
kts), and an overall unfavorable environment suggest more showers
will be likely rather than thunderstorms. Given this environment,
the severe potential is mostly non-existent. Forecasted rainfall
totals range up to half an inch mainly for eastern KS and western
MO. Showers and storms will likely dissipate by the early afternoon.
Temperature-wise, highs for tomorrow are anticipated to range in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Increased cloud coverage from showers and
storms could impede the effects of daytime heating resulting in high
temperatures being a few degrees.
As we approach mid-week, the mid to upper level ridging gradually
shifts to the east towards our area. Higher heights combined with
persistent southerly winds will spark a warming trend on Wednesday.
Highs are expected to range around the mid to upper 80s. Late
Wednesday into Thursday, a H700 shortwave moves through the
southwestern edge of our CWA (areas near Miami, Linn, and Bates
counties). A small swathe of moisture combined with the low-level
jet increasing moisture transport, will provide low-end chances for
showers and storms primarily for eastern KS and western MO, south of
I-70. Better chances for showers and storms remain to the west of
our area. For now, kept the forecast mostly dry due to the weak
signal. The LREF also agrees with the weak signal as it keeps less
than a 25% chance for measurable precip for eastern KS and western
MO.
Temperatures continue to gradually increase towards the end of the
work week as the mid to upper level ridge axis moves over the area.
Highs climb into the upper 80s to low 90s by Thursday which happens
to be roughly 8-10 degrees above normal. Highs in the low to mid 90s
become more widespread by Friday. Spotty chances for precip return
Sunday into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
VFR conditions to start the TAF period. A bkn-ovc deck remains
over the terminals around 18-20 kft. Winds are expected to
remain out of the south during the forecast time frame.
Occasional gusts to 18-20 kts will continue until this evening.
Multiple rounds of light showers and a few thunderstorms are
possible tonight into the late morning. Showers and storms are
anticipated to dissipate by the afternoon.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion