Rudd, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

137
FXUS62 KRAH 121101
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
701 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered to our north will extend down through the Mid
Atlantic and the Carolinas through the weekend, although a
northeasterly wind flow and passage of an upper level trough into
the region will bring periods of clouds each day.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 355 AM Friday...
Surface high pressure centered over southern Quebec extends south
into the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, bringing continued NE low-
level flow to central NC. With mostly clear skies and surface winds
turning very light to calm, satellite night fog imagery along with
current observations show an area of fog spreading south through the
NE Piedmont. Several ASOS/AWOS sites including KRDU, KHNZ, KLHZ and
KTTA are already reporting visibilities in the one quarter to one
half mile range. High-res guidance including the HRRR depicts this
fog continuing to spread SSW overnight. There is some uncertainty in
how far it will reach, and the 00z HREF mean has a notable increase
in its extent compared to the 12z run. Some reduced visibilities are
possible anywhere in central NC, but the highest probabilities for
dense fog are across the NE Piedmont and northern Sandhills. Any fog
will lift and dissipate by mid morning. Use caution if you encounter
dense fog when driving early this morning.
A positively-tilted mid/upper trough is currently evident on water
vapor imagery from the OH Valley into the Deep South. It will slowly
move east across central NC today and tonight, with a ridge building
over the Southern Plains. But with surface high pressure still
ridging down from the north and below-normal PW values, only a
period of increased cloudiness is expected. Persistent NE flow will
keep high temperatures near to a few degrees below normal, in the
upper-70s to lower-80s. Tonight`s lows will mostly be in the mid-to-
upper-50s (perhaps lower-50s in the usual cool spots) with clear
skies and decent radiational cooling.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Friday...
Surface high pressure will continue to ridge down from the Canadian
Maritimes on Saturday and Saturday night. Looking aloft, the
mid/upper trough will remain anchored near the Southeast US
coastline, keeping any rain chances right at the coast or offshore,
as below-normal PW values persist across central NC. Only some mid
and high clouds are expected, mainly in the east. Continued NE low-
level flow and similar low-level thicknesses to Friday mean another
day of slightly below normal temperatures is expected, with highs in
the upper-70s to lower-80s. Saturday night`s lows will again drop
into the 50s under mostly clear skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 AM Friday...
* Near-normal temperatures likely, with the potential for isolated
  to scattered showers possible in the east midweek.
Surface ridging and high pressure should generally continue to
dominate over central North Carolina for much of the long term
period. Temperatures on Sunday and Monday should be near to slightly
above normal. This equates to maximum temperatures reaching the low-
to-mid 80s each afternoon and lows each night in the upper 50s to
low 60s. A dry backdoor cold front looks to move through the region
Monday with surface high pressure building back in behind it. This
should allow temperatures to drop back into the mid 70s to low 80s
each afternoon Tuesday though Thursday. The rain forecast for
Tuesday through Thursday has trended somewhat wetter in the east, as
models and their ensembles have started coming into better agreement
of a coastal system potentially bringing isolated to scattered
showers into the eastern regions of the CWA. However, it is still
unclear where the system will form and how far inland rain will be
able to spread.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 700 AM Friday...
24 Hour TAF Period: Satellite imagery and surface observations
indicate a narrow area of fog, locally dense, stretching SSW from
around KTDF and KHNZ down to KRDU, KTTA, KSOP, and most recently
KAFP. LIFR ceilings and visibilities are possible within this narrow
band, but outside of that, fog really hasn`t developed, and guidance
doesn`t indicate the current area will expand much more beyond where
it is right now. So KRDU is the only TAF site currently affected by
the fog, and only have TEMPO groups for MVFR visibilities for
another couple hours at the remaining TAF sites, as confidence in
fog reaching there is fairly low. Any fog will lift and dissipate by
mid-morning, with VFR conditions prevailing the rest of the day.
Some scattered to broken clouds around 5-8 kft are expected this
afternoon, with clearing this evening. Winds will be from the NE
around 5-10 kts today, diminishing again this evening.
Outlook: Mostly VFR conditions are expected into early next week.
Ridges of high pressure extending in from the north will dominate at
the surface, although a few more clouds and gusty winds are possible
late Fri with passage of an upper level trough into the area. A
coastal system may bring scattered showers early next week, best
chance in the east, but models differ and it is too early to specify
details at this time.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Danco
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...Danco/BSD/Hartfield

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion