Ruth, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

426
FXUS63 KJKL 261727
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
127 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few light showers will be possible today and Saturday, mainly
  for areas near the Virginia border. Expect drier weather and
  more sunshine to return on Sunday.
- We are monitoring a tropical system that could influence our
  weather next week. The forecast is extremely uncertain, and it
  is too early to determine potential impacts.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2025
No major changes to the grids this morning. Just a quick update to
clean up from this morning`s dense fog advisory. Grids have been
saved and sent.
UPDATE Issued at 750 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2025
Fog and low clouds prevail across most of the forecast area at
update. Everything seems to be on track, so anticipate fog and low
clouds gradually lifting through the morning. The Dense Fog
Advisory for northern counties runs out at 10 AM EDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 438 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2025
At 8z, a mixture of high and low clouds with fog (locally dense)
was present across eastern Kentucky, along with a few small, light
rain showers over the far southeast. Temperatures range from the
low to mid-60s. The latest surface analysis shows a weak cold
frontal boundary now to our east, stretching from New England
southwestward over the southern Appalachians and beyond to the
Central Gulf Coast. The 850 hPa cold front appears to lag the
surface boundary and is located just ahead of a mid-level
vorticity lobe and a 500 hPa trough axis extending from the St.
Lawrence Valley southwestward into eastern Texas. It appears the
southern portion of the trough may already be closing off over
western Kentucky and Tennessee as the more poleward portion shears
off to the east.
Through the remainder of today, that weak upper low will cut off
completely from the main flow aloft and drift southward into the
Shoals of Alabama. Tonight and Saturday, that low will drift
eastward to near or over Atlanta, GA, before drifting back north
across the Southern Appalachians by the end of the day. In the
meantime, the aforementioned vorticity lobe will be very slow to
cross the area today, initiating weak convection (PoPs 5-35%,
lowest northwest to highest southeast). Precipitation chances will
become increasingly confined to the Virginia border area with
time. Precipitation chances will exit to the east this evening.
However, additional energy rotating around that new cutoff low
will lift into far eastern Kentucky tonight, potentially
initiating weak convection, primarily near and east of US-23.
Additional weak convection is possible on Saturday, primarily over
the eastern half of the forecast area, associated with the energy
ejecting out of the weak low. Meager instability, generally less
than 750 J/kg of MLCAPE, will limit overall convective vigor both
days; any thunder, should it occur, will be a novelty.
In sensible terms, fog (locally dense) and low stratus this
morning will lift, giving way to partly sunny skies. Any isolated
to widely scattered light showers will shift southeastward with
time, becoming confined mostly to areas near the Virginia-Kentucky
border. A rumble of thunder cannot be entirely ruled out with the
strongest activity this afternoon. It will be mild with high
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. For tonight, clouds will
remain persistent over the eastern half of the forecast area,
where isolated to widely scattered showers are expected to
redevelop late. Better clearing is expected further west and where
that persists, fog formation is especially favored in the
valleys. It will be cooler, with lows ranging from the mid-50s in
the western valleys to the low 60s over far eastern Kentucky.
Looking ahead to Saturday, cloud cover will be thicker and more
persistent across eastern portions of the area. These clouds will
coincide with the highest probability for rain (likely chances in
those counties adjacent to the Virginia-Kentucky border) but a
shower cannot be ruled out as far west as the Pottsville
Escarpment. A stray thunderstorm also cannot be ruled out.
Saturday will be similarly mild again with high temperatures in
the mid 70s to around 80.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 606 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2025
The long-term period opens Saturday evening with a weak inverted
surface trough over far eastern Kentucky, while a weak ~578 dam
low is situated nearby over the Southern Appalachians. That upper
low moves further east by Sunday, with northerly flow helping to
dry out the air mass. This will result in more sunshine and mostly
dry conditions. Only the far eastern counties have a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms. The evolution of the low will
play an important role in how a tropical system (currently a
disturbance near/over Haiti) affects the southern and central
Appalachians next week. Confidence in the tropical system`s track
and any potential impacts on eastern Kentucky remains extremely
low. Model spread and run-to-run inconsistency is unusually large,
no changes were made to the NBM from Monday onward. Nighttime
ridge-to-valley temperature splits were added for Saturday and
Sunday nights, along with the typical nocturnal valley fog.
Temperatures are expected to start the period near seasonal norms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2025
Terminals are slowly starting to recover from this morning`s dense
fog and low stratus. All terminals are MVFR and will slowly
improve to VFR through the afternoon. Scattered showers and
isolated storms will be possible this afternoon but should remain
clear of the 5 TAF sites. Showers/storms are forecast to dissipate
toward the overnight, followed by the development of locally dense
river valley fog. Fog is forecast to stay largely out of the TAF
sites but can`t rule out fog leaking into a site. Lastly, light
and variable winds will prevail through the TAF window.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...VORST

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion