Saint Marys, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

888
FXUS63 KTOP 062318
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
618 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Pleasant this weekend with next rain/storm chances returning
Monday into Tuesday (30-60%)
- Temperatures expected to gradually warm through next week with
  highs returning to the 80s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
A very nice afternoon is underway as northwesterly flow aloft and
surface ridging dominate the central Plains. Temperatures this
afternoon have warmed into the mid to upper 70s with a light breeze
and sunny skies. Fog potential tonight seems lower than this morning
as a weak frontal boundary slides across the area, flipping winds
out of the northeast and advecting in slightly drier air. Some areas
across central Kansas could see some isolated areas of fog around
sunrise Sunday morning, but confidence is not high. Expect the
pleasant weather to continue into Sunday as temperatures top out in
the mid to upper 70s with mostly sunny skies.
The next chance for rain and storms come Monday into Tuesday morning
as a subtle mid-level wave moves off the central Rockies and into
the central Plains. Southerly flow ahead of this wave should return
upper 50 and low 60 degree dewpoints to the area, aiding in
available moisture. Given some hints of instability and steep ML
lapse rates, mainly across central and north-central Kansas, Monday
morning and afternoon, storm development is not out of question.
PoPs are expected to persist across the area through early Tuesday
morning before the upper wave passes east of the area. Through the
end of the week, mid-level heights increase due to ridge building
over the central US. This will help to keep us mostly dry and
gradually warm the area back up into the 80s each afternoon.&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
VFR TAFs will continue through the period at all sites with some
high-based cu developing through the afternoon today. Winds will
see a slow shift to the northeast overnight tonight but will
remain under 10 knots for the entire period as surface ridging
dominates the region.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 604 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
VFR conditions prevail through the period with a dry profile in
place with a few higher clouds overnight helping to limit near
surface radiational cooling and any meaningful fog formation.
Winds become southerly tomorrow but remain generally under 10kts
with a few afternoon clouds in the low levels once again.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Drake

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion