Screven, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

978
FXUS62 KJAX 131754
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
154 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Surface high pressure ridge continues to stay nearly stationary
over the Appalachians while a broad low pressure system and trough
some 375-425 miles east of our coast lingers into tonight. Low
level pressure system offshore is forecast to drift generally
northward into tonight. While this occurs, a sharp mid/upper level
trough drifts slightly southeastward, while a piece of the
vorticity cuts off an upper level low over our coast by early
Sunday morning. What this means is we will continue to see a
fairly decent pressure gradient continuing into Sunday morning
while weakening slightly per model consensus. Winds of 15-25 mph
coastal counties rest of the aftn, and 10-20 mph inland. Have
seen wind gusts of about 39 mph at the coast so far so left the
wind advisory in effect at this time. The winds will relax
tonight, especially inland areas. Waves of low to mid level
moisture will impact the coastal areas. This should still support
some low chances of showers around the 15-30 percent range into
tonight, but most favored for northeast FL from Duval to Flagler
counties where the best moisture convergence and higher PWATS are
located. Skies will start to clear mid to late evening and will
see lows again mostly in the 60s inland, but more like lower 70s
along the coastal areas due to elevated winds and near onshore
flow. A few sites in the upper 50s are possible near and north of
Alma GA tonight where lighter winds and dry air is located.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Breezy onshore northeast winds continue each day between a
surface high pressure ridge axis extending down across southern GA
and a meandering surface low well offshore of the U.S. Atlantic
coast. Peak coastal gusts are expected to range between 25-35 mph
Sunday then subside to 20-30 mph Monday. Seasonally warm highs in
the mid/upper 80s and dry conditions continue for inland southeast
GA and much of the Suwannee River Valley, while cooler daytime
highs in the low 80s continue at coastal locations as waves of
showers and isolated storms move onshore each day, mainly
impacting northeast Florida south of Mayport to Flagler Beach.
Convection will have a diurnal trend, with nocturnal showers and
isolated storms over the adjacent Atlantic waters shifting inland
with daytime heating toward the St. Johns River basin of northeast
Florida. Drier air will limit inland progression of any coastal
showers for southeast Georgia. The best chances of rainfall will
continue to focus across coastal St. Johns and Flagler counties
(40-60%) with less than 30% farther north and inland from
Brunswick to Jacksonville to Ocala. With an upper level trough
lingering overhead and steeper mid level lapse rates, a few
stronger storms are possible mainly over the local coastal waters.
Mild low temperatures overnight range from near 60 well inland
under mostly clear skies to the low 70s toward the coast. Could be
some inland fog and low stratus at times across inland areas each
night after midnight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Tue-Thu...Warmer and trending drier as the persistent upper level
east coast trough shifts slowly east of the local area as a ridge
nudges in from the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, high
pressure builds southward with a ridge center extending across
SC/GA by midweek, which will continue moderate easterly low level
flow across northeast Florida where a low chance (20% or less) of
coastal showers or isolated mainly afternoon thunderstorm was
maintained, extending inland each day toward the St. Johns River
basin. High temperatures will warm back toward climo values in the
upper 80s inland with near to just below climo along the coast in
the mid to low 80s. Lows will trend below normal inland due to
the drier airmass with near normal toward the coast in the upper
60s/low 70s.
Fri-Sat...Rain chances increase from south of north as a front
lifts up the Florida peninsula with an increase in deep layer
moisture as a long wave trough deepens southward from the Mid-
West. This scenario will bring the return for localized, briefly
flooding rainfall to parts of northeast Florida, especially if a
low forms along the lifting front just offshore or near the FL
Atlantic coast. Higher rain chances of 30-50% were advertised for
northeast Florida with less than 20% for most of southeast
Georgia. With continued drier air across inland areas, highs will
begin to moderate into the upper 80s to low 90s (just above climo)
while low level easterly flow continues to bring mild coastal
highs in the 80s. Lows will range in the 60s inland to lower 70s
coast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Breezy NNE winds continue to around 00Z with sustained winds 10-15
kts and gusts 20-25 kts. MVFR ceilings gradually lift over CRG,
VQQ and SGJ this afternoon but may continue at SGJ into tonight.
Rounds of isolated coastal showers will shift onshore mainly
affecting SGJ and GNV. Winds subside tonight with 5 kts inland and
around 10 kts along the coast. NNE winds increase again after 15Z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 150 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Winds and seas easily meeting small craft advisory criteria with
SAUF1 reporting sustained NNE wind about 25 kt and seas at buoys
are 6-8 ft. The peak in the winds and seas appear likely to occur
later today and early this evening hours and begin a slow fall
into Sunday. Sustained winds more in the 15-20 kt range on Sunday
with seas of about 4-7 ft so the advisory is continuing. Winds and
seas begin to slide more into the exercise caution criteria later
Sunday night but some advisory criteria is possible offshore
pending further guidance and any observations. Winds further
reduce slightly on Monday but still likely exercise caution
headlines likely. Winds and seas may drop below headlines Monday
night and Tuesday, but still have northeast winds of up to about
15 kt and seas of 4-5 ft, so it wouldn`t take much to have some
caution headlines.
Otherwise, for synopsis...
Moderate to strong northeast winds and rough seas expected this
weekend as an area of low pressure develops over the western
Atlantic and high pressure wedges down the southeastern seaboard.
Small Craft Advisory conditions expected to continue through at
least Sunday evening. A few gale force gusts are expected over
area waters through late this evening. Showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms also expected across our local waters during the
weekend. The weak low pressure system will lift northward across
the Gulf Stream waters off the southeastern seaboard early next
week, keeping breezy northeasterly winds, elevated seas, and
chances for showers and thunderstorms in place across our region.
Rip currents: Life-threatening rip Currents and very rough surf
with the moderately strong northeast flow through the weekend with
surf/breakers near 4-7 ft today, with high surf advy in effect
for northeast FL beaches through the evening. Latest observations
from buoys at the coast show 6-7 ft so advisory looks good,
though technically marginal.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 150 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Coastal tides are coming up with the high expected around the
1:30-2:30 pm time frame with some sites at action stage. We will
see the St Johns River basin reach high tides from just before 3
pm to 6 pm. Expecting most of the sites to peak around the 1.5 to
2 ft MHHW range. The coastal flood advisory looks good, but one or
two sites could reach around the moderate flood category of about
2.3 to 2.5 ft. With the peak in winds today, expect that water
levels (at least on the coast) on Sunday won`t be as high. In the
St Johns River Basin for Sunday, they may be quite high again as
trapped tides/waters further elevates water levels at Minor to
possibly near Moderate flood stage. We will continue to monitor
this trend in the latest guidance and observations.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  86  59  87 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  69  82  69  83 /  30  20  10  20
JAX  67  85  66  86 /  20  30  10  30
SGJ  71  84  72  85 /  40  50  20  30
GNV  65  89  64  90 /  10  20   0  10
OCF  66  86  66  88 /  10  20   0  20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-125-138-233-
     333.
High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ124-125-138-233-
     333.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ124.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ125-132-137-
     138-225-233-325-333-633.
GA...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for GAZ154-166.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for GAZ154-
     166.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion