Seawillow, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

778
FXUS64 KEWX 101112
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
612 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures within a few degrees of mid September averages.
- Very low rain chances may return.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH FRIDAY)...
The Subtropical Ridge builds over our area the rest of this week.
Subsidence under the Ridge and a dry airmass aloft with PWs below
mid September averages keep rain chances out of the forecast for
most areas. However, a subtle increase in lower level moisture
is forecast in the model/ensemble suite. This may result in a
few showers near the Coastal Plains on Thursday and the Winter
Garden region on Friday corresponding to a subtle increase in
moisture over those areas. High temperatures remain steady,
though warmer than the last few days, while low temperatures
warm a little more each night due to the increased moisture.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
The Subtropical Ridge axis is nearly overhead this weekend into
early next week. Strengthened subsidence and a subtle drying of
the airmass keep rain out of the forecast most areas. However,
cannot rule out a shower or two near the Coastal Plains and over
the Winter Garden areas where deeper moisture is forecast. The
passage of a series of mid level troughs well northwest of our
area finally takes its toll on the Ridge by the middle of next
week. Subsidence weakens while moisture increases leading to
increased, though slight, chances of showers and thunderstorms
near the Coastal Plains and over the Winter Garden regions on
Tuesday. Steady daily temperatures trends remain slightly above
mid September averages.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
VFR flying conditions are expected through the period with
light winds and seasonable temperatures. Winds will remain light
and variable at less than 5 kts through the night time hours
followed by 5-10 kts during the daytime hours, generally out of
the east-southeast. Clear skies are expected with good flying
conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  96  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  68  96  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     68  96  70  96 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            66  92  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           72  94  73  94 /   0   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        67  95  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             66  95  70  95 /   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  97  68  97 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   69  95  68  96 /   0  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       69  95  72  96 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           70  97  73  97 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...MMM

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion